開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

01S.Alicia 南印新風季首旋

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2020-11-9 20:03 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶氣旋  
編號:01-20202021 ( 01 S )
名稱:Alicia
033631vc4ccggxd1nce0s5.jpg
  基本資料     
擾動編號日期:2020 11 09 19
JTWC升格日期:2020 11 14 02
命名日期  :2020 11 14 02
撤編日期  :2020 11 20 14
登陸地點  :


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) :65 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):65 kt ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓986 百帕

  擾動編號資料  

92S.INVEST.15kts-1007mb-3S-90E 20201108.2200.f15.37h.92S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.3S.90E.075pc.jpg
以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

查看全部評分

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 76 天

[LV.6]常住居民II

Heigo|2020-11-10 12:31 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC Low
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.8S
88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 1074 NM WEST OF JAKARTA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZING FLARING CONVECTION PARTIALLY
OBSCURING AN ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091530Z
ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS 15-20 KTS WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
ROBUST POLEWARD AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 28-29C. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair (23).jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2020-11-12 09:57 | 顯示全部樓層
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4S 91.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3S 88.8E, APPROXIMATELY 968 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND AN 111901Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT LOW LEVEL
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. INVEST 92S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg 20201112.0120.himawari-8.ir.92S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.5.3S.88.8E.100pc.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-11-12 18:27 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC0930Z發布TCFA
WTXS21 PGTW 120930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.5S 89.7E TO 6.4S 82.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
120600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.7S
89.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.3S 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7S 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 991 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW. A 120720Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM ALL
SIDES. 92S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, INTENSIFYING
TO WARNING THRESHOLD IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130930Z.//
NNNN
sh9221.gif 20201112.1000.himawari-8.ir.92S.INVEST.25kts.1006mb.4.7S.89E.100pc.jpg
20201112.0720.gw1.89pct89h89v.92S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.5.2S.88.6E.68pc.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-11-12 21:18 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR編號擾動區第1號 7FAD6122095D159B1298B55CE309CA50.jpg 20201112.1250.himawari-8.ir.92S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.4.5S.87.7E.100pc.jpg
20201112.1219.f17.91pct91h91v.92S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.4.5S.87.7E.055pc.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-11-13 03:57 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-11-16 03:37 編輯

EC又再度急不可奈的幫忙JTWC升格了01SXD
92S INVEST 201112 1800 4.8S 87.1E SHEM 25 1006

01S.png 20201112.1930.himawari-8.ir.92S.INVEST.25kts.1006mb.4.8S.87.1E.100pc.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-11-14 03:13 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-11-14 05:54 編輯

MFR18Z升格中度熱帶風暴,命名Alicia
而在同一時間,JTWC18Z亦升格其為01S
SWI_20202021.png sh0121.gif 20201113.1840.himawari-8.ir.92S.INVEST.35kts.1004mb.6.5S.81.5E.100pc.jpg
92S_gefs_latest.png
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-11-16 03:37 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC18Z升格C1,定強65KT
SH, 01, 2020111518,   , BEST,   0, 142S,  732E,  65,  986, TY,  64, NEQ,   15,   20,   20,   20, 1007,  180,  20,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     ALICIA, M,
20201115.1830.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.01SALICIA.60kts-986mb-136S-733E.100pc.jpg 20201115.1045.f15.85h.01S.ALICIA.60kts.988mb.12.7S.74.1E.065pc.jpg
20201115.1045.f15.85rgb.01S.ALICIA.60kts.988mb.12.7S.74.1E.065pc.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

12下一頁
快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表