(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.6N
136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM NORTHEAST OF PALAU, FSM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS BROAD LOW LEVEL
TURNING WITH DISORGANIZED AND FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A PARTIAL
060443Z AMSR2 89 GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED
AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
INVEST 92W IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 92W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.6N 136.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY
460 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ELONGATED LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. A PARTIAL 062049Z SSMIS F-18 91 GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INVEST 92W IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DIVERGENCE ALOFT OFFSET
BY MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT INVEST 92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS IT
ONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS WEST OF THE PHILIPPINES AFTER TAU 30
UNDER AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
WTPN21 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 124.6E TO 12.8N 116.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 124.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 127.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 124.1E, APPROXIMATELY 45
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
STRUGGLING AGAINST THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF TRAVERSING THROUGH THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. A 071007Z SSMIS F-17 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LLC AND SHALLOWER CONVECTIVE
BANDING FORMING TO THE EAST. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN AN MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29
TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO
HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD
WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION WHILE OVER THE PHILIPPINES. HOWEVER,
AFTER IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MODELS
EXPECT IT TO INTENSIFY TO WARNING THRESHOLD WITH LIMITED FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
081500Z.//
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