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2022 梵高 越南二連擊

簽到天數: 1309 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2020-11-8 07:52 | 顯示全部樓層
  中度颱風  
編號:2022 ( 25 W )
名稱: 梵高 ( Vamco )
2022.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期        :2020 11 08 07
JMA升格熱低日期:2020 11 08 14
CWB編號日期   :2020 11 08 20
命名日期         :2020 11 09 14
停編日期         :2020 11 16 08
登陸地點      :菲律賓 奎松省
              越南 廣平省

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局  (CWB):43 m/s ( 14 級 )
日本氣象廳  (JMA) :45 m/s ( 85 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):115 kts ( Cat.4 )
菲律賓大氣地球物理和天文服務管理局  (PAGASA) :155 km/h
海平面最低氣壓945 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑  : 200 公里
十級風半徑  : 70  公里

  過去路徑圖   - 來源:維基百科
Vamco_2020_track.png

  擾動編號資料  
93W.INVEST.15kts-1007mb-8N-134E

20201107.2320.himawari-8.vis.93W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.8N.134E.100pc.jpg
b13rbtop.png

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、PAGASA、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 347 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

dom|2020-11-8 09:18 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2020-11-8 14:29 編輯

系集支持93W發展,走經典西進南海路線
wpac.png 93W_b13rbtop.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2020-11-8 11:50 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N
134.3E, APPROXIMATELY 69 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080045Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME FORMATIVE BANDING IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL QUICKLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

93W_gefs_latest.png
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-11-8 12:31 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-11-8 15:36 編輯

以一個剛被編擾不久的擾動而言型態上還不賴,就看發展的速度了
兩大數值依舊是老樣子,GFS預報初期增強的較快,EC在這方面依然是慢郎中
gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_fh6-132.gif ecmwf_mslp_uv850_wpac_fh0-168.gif
20201108.0340.himawari-8.vis.93W.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.8.4N.134.3E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-11-8 15:43 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC0730Z評級提升至Medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 133.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 132
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) LARGELY OBSCURED BY FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME
INDICATION OF POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH. A 080430Z
AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REINFORCES THIS PERCEPTION,
REVEALING FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LLC WITH
FRAGMENTED BANDING TO THE NORTH. INVEST 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
93W WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
20201108.0710.himawari-8.vis.93W.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.9.3N.133.9E.100pc.jpg 20201108.0430.gw1.89pct89h89v.93W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.8.2N.133.5E.96pc.jpg
20201108.0430.gw1.89hbt.93W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.8.2N.133.5E.96pc.jpg

點評

傳錯帖了...  發表於 2020-11-8 16:01
ECHMF自己升格24W XD  發表於 2020-11-8 15:58
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

dom|2020-11-8 17:00 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA升格TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 09N 132E WEST SLOWLY.
20110815.png
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簽到天數: 1309 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2020-11-8 18:32 | 顯示全部樓層
預估未來一週,中高層副高持續主宰,颱風偏南通過,趨向越南至海南島一帶
eastasia.png
124283304_10225879635608217_6451567249430566374_o.jpg
GRA___000_20110800_003.gif
WWW_EFS_D1_168_20110712_F00.gif
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-11-8 21:23 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-11-8 21:26 編輯

JMA12Z發布GW,上望65KT
WTPQ51 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 08.8N 133.8E POOR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 12.7N 130.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 101200UTC 14.1N 127.8E 130NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 111200UTC 14.2N 124.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 121200UTC 14.0N 118.7E 280NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 131200UTC 14.1N 114.1E 390NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT

b-00 (1).png 20201108.1300.himawari-8.ir.93W.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.9.1N.134.2E.100pc.jpg 20201108.0952.f17.91pct91h91v.93W.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.9.3N.133.9E.075pc.jpg 20201108.0952.f17.91h.93W.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.9.3N.133.9E.075pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +10 收起 理由
king111807 + 10 GW

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