(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.0S 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 643 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111623Z METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS DISORGANINZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INVEST 99S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY
STRONG (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL TRACK WEST AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1S 77.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 77.7E, APPROXIMATELY 475
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 131336Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
DISORGANIZED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 131541Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN
ELONGATED, ASYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH.
INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 99S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTXS21 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1S 67.9E TO 13.4S 61.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 67.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S
68.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 67.5E, APPROXIMATELY 407NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 151152Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY FLARING
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTH. A 1642Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS 25-
30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC FROM THE SW QUADRANT. INVEST
99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 99S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
SLOWLY INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162100Z.//
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