老農民版夜神月

BoM預測三日內升格機率為低

A tropical low (10U) was located near 16.1S 97.3E at 14:000 WST Sunday 24 January, which is about 440 kilometres south of the Cocos Islands. It is forecast to move southwest, then start moving west sometime Tuesday which takes it out of the region during Wednesday or Thursday. Gales could develop to the west of the system overnight into Monday, and then shift to the southern side on Tuesday as the system starts enhancing the easterly winds to the south of the system. There is only a small chance of it being categorised as a tropical cyclone. This will be when it is well away from the Cocos Islands and the West Australian coast, with no direct impacts expected.

As this system moves further south, the northwesterly winds between the islands and Indonesia should ease, and likewise the northwesterly swell impacting Flying Fish Cove on Christmas Island should be on a slow easing trend.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:
Low
Tuesday:
Low
Wednesday:
Low

老農民版夜神月

JTWC在BoM不再認為將升格後持續發報，預計一天半後即將進入MFR轄區
MFR已對13S有些微反應

老農民版夜神月

MFR開始對13S發報，並認定其為熱帶低壓，編號09-20202021,暫不看好命名

DEPRESSION TROPICALE numéro 9

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 55 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 75 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 1001 hPa.
Position le 27 janvier à 16 heures locales: 19.6 Sud / 90.4 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 3595 km au secteur: EST
Distance de Mayotte: 4870 km au secteur: EST-SUD-EST
Déplacement: OUEST, à 19 km/h.

Informations sur le système :
1) La dépression tropicale 09 est un système de faible intensité venant du bassin australien. Son intensité restera faible tout au long de son suivi.

2) Actuellement à l'extrémité Est du bassin, il ne présente pas de risque particulier pour les terres habitées.


Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 28/01 à 16h locales, par 19.0 Sud / 83.8 Est.

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 29/01 à 16h locales, par 17.6 Sud / 76.7 Est.

PERTURBATION TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 30/01 à 16h locales, par 16.7 Sud / 70.1 Est.

PERTURBATION TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 31/01 à 16h locales, par 15.7 Sud / 64.1 Est.

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
Centre positionné le 01/02 à 16h locales, par 15.0 Sud / 58.7 Est

dom

JTWC發佈Final Warning

老農民版夜神月

GFS認為13S於後期接近馬達加斯加時，將滯留並顯著增強

老農民版夜神月

MFR已停止發報，展望中亦不見其蹤影

老農民版夜神月

JTWC重新開始評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 13S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.5S 77.3E, APPROXIMATELY 798 NM EAST OF PORT MANTHURIN, MAURITIUS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 291332Z AMSU-B 89GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES REMNANTS OF 13S IS IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MARGINAL (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF 13S WILL TRACK
WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

在數千公里的奔波與數日的掙扎後,終究逐漸消散,只餘空殼
JTWC1800Z取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 13S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 61.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.