霧峰追風者

基本資料  
編號　　　　：18 S
擾動編號日期：2021 年 01 月 29 日 07 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 02 月 06 日 20 時
98S.INVEST.15kts-1004mb-16.1S-125.7E

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BOM編號12U

ropical low (12U) was located over the northern Kimberley, about 150 kilometres south southwest of Kalumburu and 500 kilometres east northeast of Broome at 2pm WST Thursday 28 January. It is forecast to track southwest over the next few days and is expected to bring heavy rainfall, particularly through northern and western parts of the Kimberley.
The most likely scenario is for 12U to move offshore from the west Kimberley coast near Broome on Sunday and continue moving west parallel to the Pilbara coast next week. Once offshore, it is likely to strengthen into a tropical cyclone, and this could occur very soon after the low moves over open waters. There is the potential for this system to become a severe tropical cyclone as it tracks over waters to the north of the Pilbara.
There remains a chance the system moves further south, doesn't make it to open water and tracks west across the inland Pilbara, with heavy rainfall expected near the system.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Low
Sunday:High

老農民版夜神月

BoM於00Z起開始對12U發報

老農民版夜神月

JTWC0300Z評級Low

1. AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.1S
125.7E, APPROXIMATELY 373 NM SOUTHWEST FROM DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS OVER
LAND. A 290056Z METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS AN OVERALL
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) ARE VERY WARM (30-31C), PROVIDING A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EVENT THAT INVEST 98P TRACKS OVER WATER. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98P WILL TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST AS IT STRENGTHENS, CONSOLIDATES, AND
LATER ON MOVE INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 125.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 125.2E, APPROXIMATELY
170 NM EAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
(EIR) AND A 291315Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS DISORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS OVER LAND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) ARE VERY WARM (30-31C), PROVIDING A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EVENT THAT INVEST 98S TRACKS OVER WATER. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST AS IT STRENGTHENS, CONSOLIDATES, AND
LATER ON MOVE INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC1500Z發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300321ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
300330)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5S 124.4E TO 20.0S 119.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.5S 124.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 125.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 124.2E, APPROXIMATELY
114 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300838Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 98S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-
30 HOURS AND DEVELOP QUICKLY ONCE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
311500Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 148.2E.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

JTWC於澳洲陸地上將其升格為TS

SH, 98, 2021013106, , BEST, 0, 209S, 1223E, 35, 998, TS

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JTWC升格18S