霧峰追風者

  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：13-20202021 ( 24 S )
名稱：Habana

  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2021 年 03 月 02 日 07 時
JTWC升格日期:2021 年 03 月 04 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 03 月 04 日 19 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 03 月 17 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) ：110 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：135 kt ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：938 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
90S.INVEST.15kts-1003mb-15S-65E
以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

目前GFS較為支持90S的發展，00Z報預測最低氣壓986百帕

老農民版夜神月

JTWC1100Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.2S 65.6E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031011Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A RAGGED
AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-2OKT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND A
SWATH OF 25-30KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 90S IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 90S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AS
IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

dom

MFR認為發展機會頗高

老農民版夜神月

JTWC提升評級為Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 65.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 67.4E, APPROXIMATELY 576
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 031428Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC18Z升格TD

90S INVEST 210303 1800 15.6S 67.4E SHEM 25 1002

老農民版夜神月

MFR編號擾動天氣區第13號，上望中度熱帶風暴

老農民版夜神月

00Z報升格熱帶低壓，MFR並於此報中略微調高了上望，認為可達強烈熱帶風暴，50KT