Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM PDT Fri May 7 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for an area of disturbed
weather southwest of Mexico.
1. An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development of this system is possible during the
next few days, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical
storm could form over the weekend or early next week while moving
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 8 PM PDT this evening, or earlier if conditions warrant.
H. REMARKS....6 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET=1.5 AND PT=2.0. FT
IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING FT CHANGE OF NO MORE THAN .5 IN 6 HR
DURING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT.
1. An area of low pressure remains located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity has become better organized since this
morning, and further development of this system is expected over the
next few days. A short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm
is now likely to form over the weekend or early next week before
environmental conditions become less favorable as the system moves
gradually west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
WTPN21 PHNC 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 103.6W TO 14.7N 107.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 103.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.5N 103.9W, APPROXIMATELY 1407 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO,
CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
072254Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 90E WITH LOW VWS
(<15KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST (28-29C). GLOBAL
NUMERICAL MODELS BRIEFLY TRACK A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090300Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri May 7 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for an area of disturbed
weather southwest of Mexico.
1. Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with the low pressure system located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico continue to become better
organized. Further development of this system is expected over the
next couple of days and a short-lived tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form Saturday or on Sunday. By mid
next week, environmental conditions are expected to become less
favorable as the system moves gradually west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 8 AM PDT Saturday, or earlier if conditions warrant.
1. Satellite images and recent satellite-derived surface wind data
indicate that the low pressure system located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico has become better defined
over the past several hours. Environmental conditions are conducive
for further development, and only a slight increase in organization
will result in advisories being issued on a short-lived tropical
depression or tropical storm later this morning. By Monday,
environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable as
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward away from
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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