開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

01E.Andres 東太史上最早TS

簽到天數: 1402 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2021-5-7 23:38 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶風暴  
編號:01 E
名稱:Andres
000534alblr28eru4ez4un.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2021 05 07 23
命名日期  :2021 05 09 23
撤編日期  :2021 05 13 20
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 :35  kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 :1006 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
90E.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.12N.102W

20210507.1510.goes-17.vis.2km.90E.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.12N.102W.pc.jpg

以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 1402 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-8 00:41 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-5-8 00:43 編輯

因仍在風季正式開始前,NHC發布特報並展望40%/60%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM PDT Fri May 7 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for an area of disturbed
weather southwest of Mexico.

1. An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Development of this system is possible during the
next few days, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical
storm could form over the weekend or early next week while moving
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 8 PM PDT this evening, or earlier if conditions warrant.

Forecaster Berg

two_pac_2d0.png two_pac_5d1.png
e41e246e-82ad-47d2-80a0-97faf42fa567.gif epac.png
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1402 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-8 10:17 | 顯示全部樓層
SSD分析T2.0
TXPZ27 KNES 080014
TCSENP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B.  07/2330Z

C.  12.9N

D.  103.9W

E.  THREE/GOES-E

F.  T2.0/2.0

G.  IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2/SSMI

H.  REMARKS....6 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET=1.5 AND PT=2.0. FT
IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING FT CHANGE OF NO MORE THAN .5 IN 6 HR
DURING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    07/2035Z 12.8N 103.7W AMSR2
    07/2232Z 12.8N 104.0W SSMI


...KONON

GOES015020211280ZTx82.jpg 5c010ace-19f5-476a-b289-df5e2812e795.jpg
90E_gefs_latest.png
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1402 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-8 11:23 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望再提升至60%/70%
1. An area of low pressure remains located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity has become better organized since this
morning, and further development of this system is expected over the
next few days. A  short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm
is now likely to form over the weekend or early next week before
environmental conditions become less favorable as the system moves
gradually west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1 (1).png
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1402 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-8 11:36 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-5-8 11:40 編輯

JTWC0300Z發布TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 103.6W TO 14.7N 107.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 103.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.5N 103.9W, APPROXIMATELY 1407 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO,
CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
072254Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 90E WITH LOW VWS
(<15KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST (28-29C). GLOBAL
NUMERICAL MODELS BRIEFLY TRACK A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090300Z.//
NNNN

ep9021.gif 20210508.0250.goes-17.ir.90E.INVEST.30kts.1007mb.12.5N.103.9W.100pc.jpg 20210508.0126.f17.91h.90E.INVEST.30kts.1007mb.12.5N.103.9W.100pc.jpg 20210508.0126.f17.91pct91h91v.90E.INVEST.30kts.1007mb.12.5N.103.9W.100pc.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 449 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-5-8 16:36 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-5-9 16:30 編輯

NHC展望提升至70%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri May 7 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for an area of disturbed
weather southwest of Mexico.

1. Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with the low pressure system located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico continue to become better
organized.  Further development of this system is expected over the
next couple of days and a short-lived tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form Saturday or on Sunday.  By mid
next week, environmental conditions are expected to become less
favorable as the system moves gradually west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 8 AM PDT Saturday, or earlier if conditions warrant.

Forecaster Roberts
two_pac_2d0.png
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1402 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-9 08:47 | 顯示全部樓層
SSD00Z分析T2.0/2.5
TXPZ27 KNES 090002
TCSENP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B.  08/2330Z

C.  13.3N

D.  106.8W

E.  THREE/GOES-W

F.  T2.0/2.5

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET=1.5 AND
PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO BANDING NOT BEING
CLR-CUT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KONON

20210509.0020.goes-17.ir.90E.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.12.9N.106.5W.100pc.jpg 20210508.2335.f18.91pct91h91v.90E.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.12.9N.106.5W.090pc.jpg
20210508.2335.f18.91h.90E.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.12.9N.106.5W.090pc.jpg 20210508.2335.f18.91pct.90E.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.12.9N.106.5W.090pc.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1402 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-9 14:44 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望提升至90%,可能即將升格
1. Satellite images and recent satellite-derived surface wind data
indicate that the low pressure system located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico has become better defined
over the past several hours. Environmental conditions are conducive
for further development, and only a slight increase in organization
will result in advisories being issued on a short-lived tropical
depression or tropical storm later this morning.  By Monday,
environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable as
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward away from
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1 (1).png two_pac_5d1 (2).png
90E_gefs_latest.png
回復

使用道具 舉報

12下一頁
快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表