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90S

簽到天數: 449 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2021-5-15 08:18 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料     
編號    :90 S
擾動編號日期:2021 05 15 08
撤編日期  :2021 05 20 02
90S.INVEST.15kts-1000mb-0.5S-77E
89FF73EF-638E-400A-AFF8-1B74A9A445FF.jpeg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 449 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-5-16 14:50 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR認為發展為熱帶氣旋機會中等
72D052B1-1CA7-4345-AC2B-F4378721CF44.png
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簽到天數: 449 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-5-16 15:19 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
ABIO10 PGTW 160630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/160630Z-161800ZMAY2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160151ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16MAY21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 72.9E, APPROXIMATELY 237 NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI,
INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75
KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 160300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.2S
76.2E, APPROXIMATELY 257 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SMALL POCKET OF
CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
160403Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED LLC WITH PRIMARILY
15-20KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 152339Z SSMIS 91GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS AN OVERALL LACK OF LOW-LEVEL BANDING
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 90S AND A CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LLC. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
INVEST 90S WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE REMAINING ELONGATED
WITH A MARGINAL STRENGTHENING OF WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS LOW.//
NNNN
E9175264-E281-41E5-B547-6B7D8B4204B1.jpeg
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簽到天數: 449 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-5-18 07:54 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC06Z取消評級,MFR把發展機會降至低
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.8S 76.0E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FE9CEC92-222B-4160-85E1-0DCF28AF3BEE.jpeg F3D1D467-F13D-4170-928E-32CEB97C5270.png
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簽到天數: 449 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-5-19 07:54 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR12Z取消評級
28DCFD43-9F00-4EAA-B679-F74152E78356.png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-5-19 09:13 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC00Z升格TD
90S INVEST 210519 0000 14.2S 68.4E SHEM 25 1004
64A6693F-2955-4D10-820D-BC4E20C444C3.jpeg
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簽到天數: 1402 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-19 13:38 | 顯示全部樓層
GFS最新系集,已不看好其於一天後持續發展
90S_gefs_latest (1).png 90S_tracks_latest.png
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簽到天數: 1402 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-19 13:42 | 顯示全部樓層
90S最新MSG雲圖,底層掃描圖
20210519.0430.msg-1.ir.90S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.14.2S.68.4E.100pc.jpg 20210519.0131.f17.91pct91h91v.90S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.14.2S.68.4E.075pc.jpg
20210519.0131.f17.91pct.90S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.14.2S.68.4E.075pc.jpg 20210519.0131.f17.91h.90S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.14.2S.68.4E.075pc.jpg
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