dom

風眼開啟，NHC升格C1

934
WTPZ21 KNHC 150850
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062021
0900 UTC THU JUL 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.6W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.6W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 117.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.3N 118.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.2N 120.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.4N 125.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.4N 131.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 117.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN

老農民版夜神月

NHC升格C2

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 152035
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

The evolution of Felicia's satellite imagery since last night
suggested that an eyewall replacement cycle had occurred, and
recently has completed. For the past several hours, an eye has been
occasionally appearing while surrounded by cloud tops as cold as -80
degrees C. With this eye feature becoming somewhat clearer, the
corresponding Dvorak-T numbers have increased. Based on a blend
of these latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT, the initial advisory intensity has been increased to
85 kt.

Felicia continues to move west, or 270/09kt. The ridge currently to
the north of the hurricane is forecast to shift the northwest of
Felicia by tonight, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward
for a couple of days. By early next week, the hurricane should once
again become positioned to the south of the ridge, which would
result in a westward motion through the end of the forecast period.
The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous
one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance.

The small inner-core structure of Felicia is well established, and
the cyclone should remain in an environment of low shear and over
warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the next 12-24 h. This
should allow for some additional strengthening. By late Friday,
Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may begin to
disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to move over
slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to gradually
weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC
intensity forecast remains slightly above the bulk of the guidance
through 24 h due to the aforementioned favorable conditions
currently in place for strengthening. Thereafter, the forecast is
close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 15.2N 119.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  16/0600Z 15.1N 120.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  17/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
60H  18/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  18/1800Z 14.5N 128.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  19/1800Z 14.5N 132.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

老農民版夜神月

NHC03Z報定強C2上限95KT,並上望MH

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160253
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that Felicia has continued to rapidly
strengthen this evening. Infrared temperatures have significantly
warmed within the eye during the past couple hours, and deep
convection within the eyewall has become more symmetric. A closed
ring of infrared cloud top temperatures colder than -65 to -70 deg
Celsius now completely surrounds the eye of Felicia. Based on these
current satellite trends, the initial intensity is raised to 95 kt
for this advisory. This lies between the TAFB subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimate of 90 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT objective
estimates of around 100 kt.

Warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear along
Felicia's forecast track are expected to allow for some additional
strengthening in the short-term, especially since dry air in the
surrounding environment has had minimal impact on the cyclone's
intensification up to this point. The official NHC intensity
forecast has been adjusted upward and now brings Felicia to major
hurricane status (Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale) within 12 h. The NHC forecast remains higher than the
guidance consensus through the first 72 h, then generally follows
the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) thereafter. The cyclone
is forecast to slowly weaken this weekend within a drier, more
stable mid-level environment. However, the forecast track keeps
Felicia south of the 26 deg C isotherm, which should allow the
cyclone to maintain its hurricane intensity through much of the
forecast period.

Felicia is still moving almost due west at around 8 kt. As the
steering ridge becomes positioned to the northwest of Felicia, the
cyclone is expected to move west-southwestward during the next day
or so. Then, Felicia is forecast to resume a more westward motion
for the next several days as the cyclone moves to the south of a
subtropical ridge. The track guidance remains tightly clustered
through much of the period. The official NHC forecast is adjusted
just a bit slower and slightly farther north than the previous one,
bringing it closer to the usually reliable consensus aids TVCE and
HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 15.2N 120.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
12H  16/1200Z 15.1N 121.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  17/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  17/1200Z 14.7N 124.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  18/0000Z 14.7N 126.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
60H  18/1200Z 14.9N 127.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  19/0000Z 15.0N 129.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  20/0000Z 14.9N 133.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 14.5N 137.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

dom

經典小鋼砲形態
一度達W環OW風眼


NHC09Z升格C3，今年東太首MH

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 160846
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062021
0900 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 120.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.6N 126.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 128.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.8N 130.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.6N 134.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 13.8N 137.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 121.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN

dom

Felicia有B+WMG
VIIRS0930z眼溫11.35
1155Z應短暫有高級WMG(下圖)
漂亮的小颶風 vis看上去還行
NHC最新速報定C3上限110kt
EP, 06, 2021071612, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1212W, 110, 962, HU,

老農民版夜神月

NHC升格C4

06E FELICIA 210716 1800 15.0N 122.0W EPAC 115 954

老農民版夜神月

NHC認為目前便是06E強度上的巔峰

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 162031
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 16 2021

Felicia has continued to strengthen late this morning and early
afternoon, with a very distinct clear eye embedded in the center of
a smooth CDO feature. Although objective satellite classifications
have plateaued at 105-107 kt over the past several hours, likely due
to some warming of the surrounding cloud tops around the eye, the
1800Z subjective intensity estimate from TAFB remained at T6.0 or
115 kt. Internal NHC satellite analyses concur with this estimate.
Based on the persistent TAFB classification and the pronounced eye
feature noted in visible imagery, the initial intensity has been
increased to 115 kt, making Felicia a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Felicia is moving westward again or 265/08 kt. The global and
regional models maintain the strong deep-layer ridge to the north
of the hurricane for the next 120 hours, with only minor track
deviations from a due westward motion expected throughout the
forecast period. The bulk of the latest model guidance has shifted
noticeably northward or to the right of the previous forecast
track, and the new NHC advisory track has been shifted in that
direction as well. However, the new track forecast was not shifted
as far north as the simple- and corrected-consensus models, and
instead lies near the southern edge of the track guidance envelope.

Some fluctuations in intensity will still be possible during the
next 12 h as the hurricane traverses a series of small cool and
warm ocean currents or eddies. However, by late tonight or early
Saturday, Felicia is expected to begin a gradual weakening trend
due to cool ocean upwelling beneath the hurricane, along with
intermittent entrainment of very dry mid-level air. However, the
rate of weakening is forecast to be slower than normal due to
expected low vertical wind shear (<10 kt) conditions and Felicia's
stable, annular structure. The new NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and lies near the upper end of the
intensity guidance, which is above most of the consensus and
statistical models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 14.9N 122.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  17/0600Z 14.8N 123.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  17/1800Z 14.8N 125.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  18/0600Z 15.0N 127.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  18/1800Z 15.3N 128.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
60H  19/0600Z 15.4N 130.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  19/1800Z 15.4N 132.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  20/1800Z 14.7N 136.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 13.8N 141.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

dom

環流比天鵝還要小，對流大幅加強，德法W+WMG，NHC06Z維持「115kts」。

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170859
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021

Felicia remains an impressively compact major hurricane on satellite
imagery tonight. The storm possesses a circular, clear, and warm
(10-15 C) eye surrounded by an equally symmetrical central dense
overcast (CDO) with cloud top temperatures colder than -70 C. In
addition, a 0535 UTC GMI microwave pass showed a singular closed
eyewall, with only limited outer banding outside of the inner core.
The 0600 UTC subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB
were T6.0/115 kt and T5.5/102 kt respectively, while the UW-CIMSS
ADT objective estimate was holding steady at T5.7/107 kt. Since that
time, cloud top temperatures surrounding the eye have cooled a bit
more during the diurnal max, so the initial intensity is held at 115
kt, in agreement with the higher TAFB estimate.

The hurricane has maintained more of a west-southwest motion over
the past 6-12 hours at 255/8 kt. This motion is expected to
gradually bend back westward or west-northwestward over the weekend
into early next week as a narrow mid-level ridge axis shifts back to
the north-northeast of Felicia. In the latter part of the forecast
period, a stronger deep-layer ridge north of Hawaii is expected to
become the primary steering feature, leading to a Felicia turning
back west-southwestward with gradual acceleration. The track
guidance has shifted a tad further north early on, and has continued
to speed up the forward motion near the end of the forecast period.
The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little more
poleward in the first 60 hours, closer to the HCCA and TVCE
consensus aids, and is faster after 72 hours. The forecast track
still lies roughly between the previous forecast and the
aforementioned track consensus aids.

Felicia currently has the structural characteristics of an annular
hurricane, featuring a warm eye and cold circular CDO with little
additional banding beyond the eyewall. Even though sea-surface
temperatures (SSTs) slowly decrease over the next 36 hours as
Felicia remains embedded in a dry mid-level relative humidity
environment, the modest easterly vertical wind shear (around 5-kt)
forecast over the cyclone will likely prevent dry-air entrainment
that could disrupt the stable eyewall structure. Thus, the intensity
forecast for the first 36-48 hours remains above the majority of the
guidance and it would not be surprising to see Felicia maintain its
category 4 intensity longer than forecasted in the short-term. After
60 hours, the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance shows a sharp increase in
northwesterly vertical winds shear as the hurricane tracks along the
26 C SST isotherm. These more unfavorable environmental conditions
will likely lead to significant disruption of Felicia's tiny inner
core. The weakening rate has been increased a bit more in the latter
portion of the latest NHC intensity forecast, falling near the mean
of the intensity guidance and HCCA consensus aid by the end of the
forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 14.5N 123.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  17/1800Z 14.6N 125.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  18/0600Z 14.9N 126.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  18/1800Z 15.3N 128.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  19/0600Z 15.7N 130.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
60H  19/1800Z 15.8N 132.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  20/0600Z 15.6N 134.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  21/0600Z 14.7N 140.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  22/0600Z 13.8N 145.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven