簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
|
老農民版夜神月|2021-8-26 05:07
|
顯示全部樓層
初報上望75節
023
WTPZ44 KNHC 252050
TCDEP4
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021
Scatterometer data from a few hours ago revealed that a small but
sufficiently well-defined circulation has formed on the western end
of a broader circulation which lies a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Although the system is still in its
formative stages and banding features are not readily apparent,
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have been a consensus T2.0/30 kt
since this morning. The system is therefore now designated as a
30-kt tropical depression, although the scatterometer data
suggested that its winds are already very near tropical storm force.
The depression's surface center apparently formed a little south
of the vorticity maximum we have been tracking over the past day or
so. Therefore, the initial motion is very uncertain but is
estimated to be westward, or 275/7 kt. The evolution of the
steering pattern is fairly consistent among the models. A strong
mid-tropospheric high over the U.S. Southern Plains is forecast to
weaken over the next couple of days, causing the depression to turn
from a westward motion now, to a west-northwest motion tonight, to a
northwest and north-northwest motion by Friday and Saturday. On
this track, most of the models bring the center of the system near
but still offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. The GFS has
been a notable exception, bringing the system inland over
southwestern Mexico in about 3 days. However, that model shows a
complex interaction with multiple low-level centers that
consolidate farther east, and most of the GEFS ensemble members
remain offshore with the other deterministic models. As a result,
this first NHC official forecast also shows a track remaining
offshore and is a little to the left of the HCCA and TVCE consensus
aids.
Moderate easterly to northeasterly shear is likely to continue over
the depression for the next day or so, which would temper any fast
strengthening in the short term. Still, the system will be moving
over warm waters of 28-29 degrees Celsius over the next few days,
and lower shear in 2-3 days should allow it to strengthen to a
hurricane by the weekend as it passes near the southwestern coast
of Mexico and approaches the southern part of the Baja California
peninsula. The intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement
during the first 2 days, but there is much more spread after that
time, likely related to the degree of land interaction. The NHC
intensity forecast is near the consensus aids during the first 3
days and then a little bit above them on days 4 and 5, lying
between the HWRF and HMON models at those forecast times.
Key Messages:
1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm
tonight and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday. While the
core of the storm is currently expected to remain offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds and heavy rainfall,
possibly resulting in flash floods and mudslides, could affect
portions of that area over the next several days.
2. The system is expected to pass near the southern portion of Baja
California Sur as a hurricane Sunday and Monday, bringing a risk of
wind and rain impacts to that area early next week. Given the
uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests in
this area should monitor the progress of this system and updates to
the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 11.7N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 12.8N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 14.7N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 16.2N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 18.0N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 22.7N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg |
|
提升卡
千斤頂
