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16L.Peter

簽到天數: 1501 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2021-9-13 19:05 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶風暴  
編號:16 L
名稱:Peter
16L_RBTOP.png
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2021 09 13 18
命名日期  :2021 09 19 17
撤編日期  :2021 09 00 00
登陸地點  :


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 :40  kt (
TS )
海平面最低氣壓 :1008 百帕

  擾動編號資料  

95L.INVEST.20kts.1010mb.9.1N.12.1W
20210913.1030.goes-16.ir.95L.INVEST.20kts.1010mb.9.1N.12.1W.100pc.jpg
  NHC:20%
1. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa
later today.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by late this week while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

two_atl_2d1 (45).png two_atl_5d1 (46).png
以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
s6815711 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 3086 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2021-9-14 00:46 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望升至30%
1. A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa near
the coasts of Guinea and Sierra Leone.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2021-9-14 13:17 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望升至Medium,40%
1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing an area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this disturbance over the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by later this week while the
system moves westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2021-9-14 15:49 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望升至50%
1. A tropical wave located just west of the African coast is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are
showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance over the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the weekend while the system moves westward at
about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-9-14 16:12 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-9-14 16:13 編輯

這隻是EC(包含系集也支持)前幾天預報出來的風王,巨刷級大物
結果這個非洲波真的出海時卻反而轉向不那麼支持發展了

natl (5).png 95L_gefs_latest (4).png
95L_intensity_latest (2).png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2021-9-14 21:13 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望升至High,70%
1. A tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system
is located about 400 miles southeast of the southern Cabo Verde
Islands.  Associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to
show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are
conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple
of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-9-15 02:38 | 顯示全部樓層
GFS12Z反而跟EC黃金交叉了,GFS支持發展的成員日益增多而EC反映日趨微弱
95L_gefs_latest (6).png gfs_mslp_pcpn_eatl_23.png
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_eatl_4.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-9-15 09:36 | 顯示全部樓層
FWC-N發布TCFA
WTNT21 KNGU 142200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (95L)//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N 22.0W TO 11.0N 25.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 22.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2.REMARKS: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST  OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 TO 14 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 152200Z.//
BT
al952021.gif two_atl_2d1 (47).png 20210914.2327.mtb.ASCAT.wind.95L.INVEST.25kts-1009mb.108N.233W.25km.noqc.jpg
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