1. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa
later today. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by late this week while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
1. A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa near
the coasts of Guinea and Sierra Leone. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing an area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this disturbance over the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by later this week while the
system moves westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
1. A tropical wave located just west of the African coast is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are
showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance over the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the weekend while the system moves westward at
about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
1. A tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system
is located about 400 miles southeast of the southern Cabo Verde
Islands. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to
show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are
conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple
of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
WTNT21 KNGU 142200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (95L)//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N 22.0W TO 11.0N 25.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 22.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2.REMARKS: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 TO 14 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 152200Z.//
BT
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