老農民版夜神月

  氣旋風暴  ｜  強烈氣旋風暴  
編號： BOB 04  ( 03 B )｜ ARB 02
名稱：Gulab｜ Shaheen

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2021 年 09 月 24 日 13 時
JTWC升格日期:2021 年 09 月 24 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 09 月 24 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 10 月 03 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：印度                        
                       阿曼

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 (IMD)：45 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：70 kt ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓(孟加拉灣)   ：992 百帕
海平面最低氣壓(阿拉伯海)   ：986 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
96B.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.18N.93E

以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

06Z直接升格03B

03B THREE 210924 0600 18.8N 92.1E IO 35 1005

Heigo

IMD 12Z升格CS, 命名Gulab

The Deep Depression over northwest & adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal moved
nearly westwards with a speed of 07 kmph in last 6 hours, intensified into Cyclonic Storm
‘Gulab’ (pronounced as Gul-Aab) and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of 25 th September 2021,
over northwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal near Lat. 18.3°N and Long. 88.3°E,
about 370 km east-southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha) & 440 km east of Kalingapatnam (Andhra
Pradesh).

t02436

15Z登陸印度

THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘GULAB’ (PRONOUNCED AS GUL-AAB) OVER NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH MOVED NEARLY WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 26 KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS, LAY CENTRED AT 2130 HRS IST OVER NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH NEAR LAT. 18.4°N AND LONG. 83.6°E, ABOUT 170 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GOPALPUR (ODISHA) & 50 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KALINGAPATNAM (ANDHRA PRADESH). IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY WESTWARDS AND WEAKEN INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 05 HOURS.

king111807

JTWC發布FW

WTIO31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (GULAB) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (GULAB) WARNING NR 011   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 83.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 83.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 18.5N 81.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 19.0N 78.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 82.9E.
26SEP21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (GULAB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377NM
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
MAY CARRY OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT AND INTO THE NORTH
ARABIAN SEA AT SOME POINT. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WHERE
PRECISELY THE VORTEX MIGHT RE-EMERGE INTO OPEN WATERS AND THE
INTENSITY AT WHICH IT MIGHT DO SO, SO JTWC WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
THE SYSTEM BUT FOREGO WARNINGS UNTIL SUCH TIME AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

JTWC重新評級LOW

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS 03B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.3N
76.7E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MUMBAI. THE REMNANTS OF
03B CONTINUE TO TRAVEL WEST ACROSS THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT THROUGH
AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF AN AREA DEEP CONVECTION. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF 03B WILL
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS 03B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.3N
76.7E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MUMBAI. THE REMNANTS OF
03B CONTINUE TO TRAVEL WEST ACROSS THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT THROUGH
AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF AN AREA DEEP CONVECTION. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF 03B WILL
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM

Heigo

IMD 00Z再度升格CS, 命名Shaheen

The Deep Depression over northeast Arabian Sea off Gujarat coast moved
west-northwestwards with a speed of about 25 kmph, during past 6 hours, intensified
into a Cyclonic Storm ‘Shaheen’ and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 01st
October, 2021, near latitude 23.2°N and longitude 65.3°E, about 400 km westnorthwest of Devbhoomi Dwarka (Gujarat), 260 km south-southwest of Karachi
(Pakistan) and 530 km east-southeast of Chabahar Port (Iran).
It is very likely to further intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during the next
24 hours and move west-northwestwards during next 36 hours. Thereafter it is likely to
re-curve west-southwestwards skirting Makran coast, move towards Oman coast
across Gulf of Oman and weaken gradually.