老農民版夜神月

  一級颶風  
編號：16 E
名稱：Pamela

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2021 年 10 月 08 日 21 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 10 月 11 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 10 月 15 日 01 時
登陸地點　　：墨西哥

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：70  kt ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓 ：985 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
91E.INVEST.20kts.1008mb.9.7N.89.1W

NHC：40%

1. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
a few hundred miles south of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southern Mexico.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph south of the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

NHC展望提升至60%

1. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
a few hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and southern
Mexico.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
expected to form by late this weekend or early next week while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph south of
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至High，70%

1. Recent satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure
has formed a few hundred miles south-southeast of Tehuantepec,
Mexico. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is
currently disorganized. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is expected to form by late this weekend or early next week
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15
mph south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 082300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.4N 91.8W TO 11.5N 99.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 92.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
9.5N 92.3W, APPROXIMATELY 438 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ,
MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
VERY BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 081933Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS AN
OVERALL LACK OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. INVEST 91E IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST), EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (<15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS MOSTLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91E WILL
CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT PROPAGATES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092300Z.//
NNNN

king111807

NHC展望提升至80%

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
Tehuantepec, Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is expected to form within the next couple of days while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph south
of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至90%

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of
Mexico are gradually becoming better organized.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next
day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph
south of the coast of Mexico.  Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至100%

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico
continue to become better organized. Recent satellite wind data
also suggests that the circulation is becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form
later today while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15
mph south of the coast of Mexico.  Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

king111807

NHC升格TD16E

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 100858
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162021
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

The system we have been monitoring over the last several days off
the southern coast of Mexico has been gradually improving in
organization. An earlier ASCAT-A pass at 0257 UTC indicated that a
closed surface vortex was developing, especially after investigating
the ambiguity wind solutions from the instrument. In addition, the
0600 UTC subjective Dvorak from TAFB was at T2.0/30 kt, which is in
good agreement with the peak winds (29 kt) from the earlier
scatterometer data. Since that time, convection near the estimated
center has only increased in coverage and intensity. Therefore,
advisories are being initiated on TD16-E, the first tropical
cyclone in the East Pacific basin in nearly a month. The initial
intensity has been set at 30 kt in agreement with the scatterometer
and satellite intensity estimate.

The current motion of the depression is estimated at 290/15 kt,
though some uncertainty exists given the system is in its formative
stages. At present, the cyclone is situated on the equatorward side
of an expensive mid-level ridge centered over Mexico that stretches
westward into the East Pacific. This ridge should continue to steer
the tropical cyclone to the west-northwest over then next day or so.
Thereafter, a strong shortwave trough is forecast to dig into the
western United States, creating a pronounced weakness in the
mid-level ridge steering the system. The net result of this synoptic
pattern change is that the tropical cyclone will likely bend
sharply right as the ridge becomes oriented to its east, leading to
a turn north to then northeastward in the 48-72 hour forecast. This
track evolution would likely steer the system to the mainland
Mexican coast in around 96 hours. The latest track guidance is in
pretty good agreement on the general track, though investigating the
GFS and ECMWF ensembles solutions reveals significant uncertainty
in the along-track spread of the current forecast track. The
initial NHC track forecast has been chosen to lie near the consensus
aids, splitting the difference between the TVCA and HCCA solutions.

The environment over the depression appears quite favorable for
intensification, with low shear (around 10 kt) high mid-level
moisture (around 70 percent) and warm sea-surface temperatures
(29-30 C) expected to persist for the next three days. It may take
12-24 hours for an inner core to become established, but after this
structural change occurs, the system appears poised for substantial
intensification. In fact, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance indicates a
44 percent chance of a 65 knot increase in intensity over the next
72 hours. The first NHC intensity forecast follows suit, showing a
peak intensity of 95 kt in 72 hours. It is worth noting that this
intensity forecast is less than some of the more bullish guidance,
including the latest HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and
this initial forecast could be conservative.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 14.3N 102.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  10/1800Z 15.1N 105.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  11/0600Z 15.8N 107.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  11/1800Z 16.6N 108.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  12/0600Z 17.8N 109.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  12/1800Z 19.0N 109.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  13/0600Z 20.7N 109.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  14/0600Z 25.2N 106.4W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
120H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED