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01S.Paddy 風場達標直接命名 南半球新風季首旋

簽到天數: 1569 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2021-11-19 20:11 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-11-22 15:06 編輯

  基本資料  
編號               :01 S
擾動編號日期 :2021 11 19 20
撤編日期        :2021 11 00 00
90S.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.10S.103E

20211119.1140.himawari-8.ir.90S.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.10S.103E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-11-19 22:12 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM編號02U
A weak tropical low (02U) was located about 245 kilometres west northwest of Christmas Island at 2pm WST Friday. The low should be slow moving over the next few days, before most likely moving in a westerly direction. It is not expected to develop significantly, but it may result in enhanced rainfall over Christmas Island for the next few days.

No other significant systems are expected in the Western Region for at least the next three days.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Very Low
20211119.1147.f17.91pct91h91v.90S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.10S.103E.100pc.jpg 90S_gefs_latest.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-11-22 02:43 | 顯示全部樓層
型態其實不錯,風場掃描更是掃出不少30甚至到35KT的風旗
不知為何JTWC18Z沒有評級 20211121.1446.mtb.ASCAT.wind.90S.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.124S.1074E.25km.noqc.jpg abpwsair (47).jpg
20211121.1810.himawari-8.ir.90S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.12.4S.107.4E.100pc.jpg 20211121.1120.f17.91pct91h91v.90S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.11.5S.106E.080pc.jpg

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/211800Z-221800ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-11-22 03:46 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM持續展望Very Low
IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Sunday 21 November 2021
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 24 November 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low (02U) was located about 140 kilometres southeast of Christmas Island at 1pm WST Sunday. The low should move in an east to southeasterly direction until Tuesday, before turning back towards the west in the middle of next week. It is not expected to develop significantly. Heavy rainfall from this system is no longer expected at Christmas Island now that it is moving further away.

No other significant systems are expected in the Western Region for at least the next three days.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low
20211121.1910.himawari-8.ir.90S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.12.1S.108E.100pc.jpg 90S_gefs_latest.png 90S_tracks_latest.png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2021-11-22 12:18 | 顯示全部樓層
WTXS21 PGTW 210400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 108.3E TO 13.8S 107.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7S 108.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220400Z.
//
NNNN
sh9022.gif
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2021-11-22 12:19 | 顯示全部樓層
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:13S108E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0405 UTC 22 NOVEMBER 2021

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0300 UTC Tropical Cyclone Paddy was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal one south (13.1S)
longitude one hundred and eight decimal zero east (108.0E)
Recent movement : south southeast at 6 knots
Maximum winds   : 35 knots
Central pressure: 997 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
  and within 45 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 0300 UTC 23
November.

Winds above 34 knots within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
  and within 45 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and moderate
to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1500 UTC 22 November: Within 65 nautical miles of 13.5 south 108.0 east
                        Central pressure 996 hPa.
                        Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 0300 UTC 23 November: Within 85 nautical miles of 13.7 south 107.6 east
                        Central pressure 993 hPa.
                        Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 22 November 2021.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-11-22 12:21 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-11-22 13:50 編輯

JTWC修改定強,00Z直升30節,並在沒有任何評級的基礎下直接發布TCFA
90S INVEST 211122 0000 12.7S 108.2E SHEM 30 1004
WTXS21 PGTW 210400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 108.3E TO 13.8S 107.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7S 108.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220400Z.
//
NNNN

sh9022 (1).gif 90S_220400sair.jpg abpwsair (48).jpg 90S_gefs_latest (1).png IDW60280.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-11-22 12:30 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-11-22 12:35 編輯

BoM亦於風場掃描達標的支持下直接命名Paddy 20211122.0153.mtb.ASCAT.wind.90S.INVEST.30kts-1004mb.127S.1082E.25km.noqc.jpg 20211122.0153.mtb.ASCAT.wind.90S.INVEST.30kts-1004mb.127S.1082E.25km.jpg
90S_BAND01.png 20211121.2117.f16.91pct91h91v.90S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.12.1S.108E.100pc.jpg

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 12:07 pm WST on Monday 22 November 2021

Tropical Cyclone Paddy (Category 1) was located at 10:00 am CXT near 13.1S
108.0E,
that is 390 km southeast of Christmas Island and moving south southeast at 11
kilometres per hour.
Tropical Paddy has been named this morning as it strengthened over the last 12
hours. It is now a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone well to the southeast of
Christmas Island. It is expected to remain a Category 1 system for the next 24
hours as it slowly moves south. Beyond that period the system will move further
west and weaken.

The system is not expected to directly impact Christmas Island or the WA
mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 2 pm CXT.

90S_BAND01.gif
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