老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號               ：94 W
擾動編號日期 ：2021 年 11 月 27 日 02 時
撤編日期        ：2021 年 11 月 00 日 00 時
94W.INVEST.15kts.998mb.7N.109.7E

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N
108.2E, APPROXIMATELY 251 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH,
VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD
AND WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC WITH TURNING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A 272135Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS BROAD, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND
NO DISCRETE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DEFINED BY LOW TO MODERATE
VWS, MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND PRONOUNCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE BULK OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE WESTWARD TRACK OF 94W ACROSS THE STRAIT OF
MALACCA INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL WITH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THE
ANDAMAN SEA. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL, HOWEVER, INDICATES
SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND A WEAKER SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級提升至Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.8N 108.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 106.0E, APPROXIMATELY 171
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LLC. A
290012Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 290240Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS
A DEFINED, ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DEFINED BY LOW TO MODERATE VWS
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE BULK OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE WESTWARD TRACK OF 94W
ACROSS THE STRAIT OF MALACCA INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL WITH SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IN THE ANDAMAN SEA. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL,
HOWEVER, INDICATES SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND A WEAKER SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

已進入印度洋,評級維持Medium

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 020230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020221Z DEC 21//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 020230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N 90.8E TO 13.5N 85.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.6N 90.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.2N 91.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 90.4E, APPROXIMATELY 629NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. A 2230Z SSMIS 91HZ IMAGE DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF SOME
LOW LEVEL TURNING WHILE MORE RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
REVEALS A MASS OF CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. 94W IS AT THE LIMINAL POINT OF ITS MATURATION,
CURRENTLY EXISTING IN A BOUNDARY LAYER OF MODERATE (20 KTS) TO LOW
(05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL 94W WILL ENTER A POCKET OF LOW VWS.
ACCOUNTING FOR THAT, THE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) 94W WILL ENTER AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS SUGGEST 94W WILL REACH
THE 35KT WARNING THRESHOLD, HOWEVER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
LACKADAISICAL AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD INDIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030230Z.
//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

IMD編號BoB07

Sub: Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal: Pre-Cyclone Watch for north Andhra
Pradesh and Odisha coasts.
The Well Marked Low Pressure Area over southeast Bay of Bengal moved westnorthwestwards, concentrated into a Depression and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of today,
the 2
nd December 2021, over southeast Bay of Bengal near Lat. 11.0°N and Long. 89.0°E,
about 960 km south-southeast of Vishakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 1020 km southsoutheast of Gopalpur (Odisha) & 1060 km south-southeast of Paradip (Odisha).
It is likely to move northwestwards and intensify into a Cyclonic Storm over central
parts of the Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours. It is likely to reach west-central Bay of Bengal
off north Andhra Pradesh – south Odisha coasts around 4th December morning. Thereafter it is
likely to move north-northeastwards.
Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:
Date/Time(IST) Position
(Lat. 0N/ long. 0
E)
Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (Kmph)
Category of cyclonic
disturbance
02.12.21/1730 11.0/89.0 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
03.12.21/0530 12.9/86.2 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
03.12.21/1730 14.4/84.6 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
04.12.21/0530 16.1/83.7 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
04.12.21/1730 17.7/84.0 90-100 gusting to 110 Severe Cyclonic Storm
05.12.21/0530 19.3/85.4 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm

老農民版夜神月

JTWC亦已將定強上調至30節,隨時可能升格

94W INVEST 211202 1200 10.9N 88.4E WPAC 30 1006

老農民版夜神月

JTWC升格05B

WDIO31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR
001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.0N 86.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 532 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL ROTATION SIGNATURE, WITH STRONG FLARING
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. WHILE THE DEEPEST OF THE CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS TUCKED UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CONVECTIVE
ENVELOPE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND
INCONCLUSIVE MICROWAVE DATA FROM 022116Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT A GENEROUS 35 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW
FIX AT 0000Z OF T2.5 (35 KTS) WITH A .40 WRAP. DEMS IS FIXING AT
T2.0 (30 KTS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHWEST ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
THAILAND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, TRENDING
FAVORABLE, WITH WARM SSTS (28-29C) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AT
THE CURRENT TIME, VWS IS MODEST, THE CIMSS ANALYSIS DEPICTING A
SMALL POCKET OF LOW SHEAR IN DIRECT VICINITY OF THE LLCC, COCOONED
WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY SHEAR. THE
ENVIRONMENTAL EASTERLY FLOW IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT NEAR THE SYSTEM,
PROVIDING STRONG SUPPORT FOR THE ENHANCED CONVECTION, BUT IS
RESULTING IN A WESTWARD TILT WITH HEIGHT OF THE VORTEX BASED ON GFS
AND HWRF CROSS-SECTIONS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OTHER

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
STR CENTERED OVER NORTHERN THAILAND.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: VORTEX TILT