(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7S
156.2E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS LOW LEVEL
CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC (LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER) WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 072251Z METOP-C
PASS SHOWS 10-15KT WINDS AROUND A LARGE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS IN AN AREA OF
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY WARM SST (30-31C) AND
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OUTFLOW IS NOTABLE WITH
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW FEEDING INTO THE JET TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
A weak tropical low (07U) may develop in the far northeast of the region near the Solomon Sea on Thursday or Friday. This system should move towards the south to southeast, and may develop over the weekend. It is expected to remain in the eastern Coral Sea, and will not directly impact Queensland communities.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Very Low
Saturday: Low
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7S 156.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 155.0E, APPROXIMATELY 468
NM EAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 090312Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THAT THE CIRCULATION IS IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY WARM SST (30-31C) AND LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OUTFLOW IS NOTABLE WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW FEEDING INTO THE JET TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTPS21 PGTW 092130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2S 155.8E TO 12.3S 157.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6S 155.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 155.9E, APPROXIMATELY
250NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 091729Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. IN ADDITION, FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPS INTO THE CENTER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, WEAK (05-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THAT 93P
WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
102130Z.
//
NNNN
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1315 UTC 10/12/2021
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 10.5S
Longitude: 155.4E
Location Accuracy: within 45nm (85 km)
Movement Towards: east southeast (117 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots (45 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 10/1800: 10.8S 155.8E: 080 (145): 030 (055): 999
+12: 11/0000: 11.2S 156.1E: 065 (120): 030 (055): 1000
+18: 11/0600: 11.7S 156.3E: 075 (140): 035 (065): 997
+24: 11/1200: 12.1S 156.6E: 085 (155): 035 (065): 997
+36: 12/0000: 13.3S 157.3E: 110 (200): 045 (085): 992
+48: 12/1200: 15.0S 158.3E: 115 (215): 055 (100): 986
+60: 13/0000: 16.7S 159.6E: 135 (250): 060 (110): 982
+72: 13/1200: 18.5S 161.6E: 165 (310): 065 (120): 977
+96: 14/1200: 21.6S 166.9E: 215 (395): 050 (095): 987
+120: 15/1200: 25.9S 172.7E: 265 (485): 050 (095): 986
REMARKS:
Location is based on animated IR.
The system has shown increased organisation over the past 24 hours with deep
convection on the southern side wrapping around the western side. For now, the
wrap of deep convection remains segmented. Dvorak analysis using curved band
measures 0.3 wrap on the western band, yielding a DT=2.0. However there is low
confidence in DT due to the segmented nature of convection. A D- trend produces
MET=1.5, FT is based on PT=2.0. Objective guidance isn't available yet. Maximum
winds are estimated around 25 knots.
The system is in area of low shear with under the influence of an upper ridge
to it's northeast. CMISS indicates an upper trough located over eastern
Australia is providing strong upper divergence to the south of the system.
MIMIC TPW indicates a very moist environment. SSTs are 29-30C in the area.
NWP is inconsistent with intensification rates. Many of the higher resolution
models are producing an unusually symmetrical and stronger system with an
indication of steep intensification in the 24 to 48 hour period. While others
have a slowly developing system with the stronger winds predominantly on the
eastern side. While conditions are mostly favourable for development, vertical
wind shear amy increase substantially as the upper trough to the west becomes
more influential. A Dvorak standard rate of development is forecast with a
category 3 system approaching New Caledonia early next week.
Global and high res model guidance are consistent with the system moving
southeastwards during the weekend ahead of the approaching upper trough to the
west.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/1930 UTC.
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