IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0125 UTC 09/01/2022
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.0S
Longitude: 147.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (245 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (10 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/12HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm (110 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 09/0600: 14.0S 146.9E: 045 (085): 030 (055): 1004
+12: 09/1200: 13.9S 146.4E: 055 (100): 030 (055): 1005
+18: 09/1800: 14.0S 145.7E: 060 (105): 035 (065): 1003
+24: 10/0000: 14.0S 145.1E: 060 (110): 040 (075): 1004
+36: 10/1200: 14.1S 144.0E: 070 (130): 040 (075): 1004
+48: 11/0000: 14.1S 142.0E: 085 (160): 030 (055): 1004
+60: 11/1200: 14.2S 140.2E: 110 (205): 040 (075): 1002
+72: 12/0000: 14.1S 138.3E: 110 (205): 050 (095): 999
+96: 13/0000: 14.8S 135.4E: 130 (235): 060 (110): 996
+120: 14/0000: 15.4S 134.4E: 155 (290): 040 (075): 993
REMARKS:
Tropical low [10U] is a small system that has shown rapid development over the
last 6-12 hours.
Position was analysed using microwave and satellite imagery, with gmi/ssmis at
20:10 UTC giving a good fix. Curvature is increasing for 10U, with Dvorak
giving DT=2.5. FT/CI are also set at 2.5. Intensity set at 30 knots (10
minute).
The tropical low is under moderate shear, which is not forecast to ease, but
with SST above 29 degrees development is expected to continue. Given the small
size of 10U and the rapid organisation observed overnight, intensification
could be rapid.
Environmental conditions become more favourable once the system reaches the
Gulf of Carpentaria with SSTs above 30C. From Wednesday the shear decreases and
upper divergence increases and rapid intensification becomes more likely.
There continues to be significant variation between model runs regarding the
long term track, with some scenarios indicating the system recurves over the
Gulf waters and therefore maintains intensity.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/0730 UTC.
WTPS21 PGTW 082330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S 148.0E TO 13.8S 144.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
082300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.7S
147.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3S 147.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY
115 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BOUGAINVILLE REEF, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER. A 082010Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WITH IMPROVED OUTER BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15
TO 20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). BOTH ECMWF (08/12Z) AND GFS (08/18Z) ARE NOW
INDICATING A TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU
36 ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092330Z.//
NNNN
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1304 UTC 09/01/2022
Name: Tropical Cyclone Tiffany
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.9S
Longitude: 145.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (14 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 09/1800: 14.0S 145.2E: 040 (070): 050 (095): 989
+12: 10/0000: 14.1S 144.8E: 055 (100): 050 (095): 989
+18: 10/0600: 14.2S 144.4E: 060 (115): 050 (095): 989
+24: 10/1200: 14.2S 143.5E: 070 (130): 050 (095): 990
+36: 11/0000: 13.9S 141.6E: 085 (155): 035 (065): 999
+48: 11/1200: 13.9S 139.9E: 100 (180): 040 (075): 996
+60: 12/0000: 13.9S 137.8E: 100 (185): 050 (095): 990
+72: 12/1200: 14.2S 136.0E: 105 (195): 065 (120): 979
+96: 13/1200: 14.9S 133.4E: 135 (250): 035 (065): 998
+120: 14/1200: 15.4S 132.8E: 175 (320): 030 (055): 999
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Tiffany continues to develop and has now reached category 2
intensity.
Position was analysed using animated enhanced infra-red and microwave satellite
imagery. Convection continues to develop and wrap around the centre with very
tight banding. Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern with 0.8 to
0.85 wrap giving DT 3.5. MET is 2.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, and PAT is
adjusted up to 3.0. Final T 3.5, and CI is set to 3.5. This is supported by a
recent SMOS satellite pass indicating a small area of 50 knot winds near the
centre of the system. Intensity is set to 50 knots (10 minute mean).
The CIMSS analysed deep layer wind shear has decreased slightly to 15 to 20
knots as the upper level ridge is deformed to the north by an upper trough
passing to the south. This same feature has improved upper poleward outflow
from the system. SST is above 29 degrees Celsius. Given the small size of
Tiffany, intensification could continue, however the circulation will start to
feel the effects of the coastline within the next 6 to 12 hours and thus the
current intensity is forecast to persist through to landfall.
Tiffany will continue to be steered westward by a mid-level ridge to the south
for the next several days. Late in the week another upper trough will weaken
the ridge. The system will slow and possibly recurve to the southeast. This is
likely to be after landfall on the Northern Territory coast, however
considerable uncertainty remains with this timing. Otherwise, conditions are
broadly favourable for development as the system tracks across the Gulf of
Carpentaria and the forecast development to a category 3 system in the western
Gulf remains credible.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/1930 UTC.
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1304 UTC 09/01/2022
Name: Tropical Cyclone Tiffany
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.9S
Longitude: 145.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (14 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 09/1800: 14.0S 145.2E: 040 (070): 050 (095): 989
+12: 10/0000: 14.1S 144.8E: 055 (100): 050 (095): 989
+18: 10/0600: 14.2S 144.4E: 060 (115): 050 (095): 989
+24: 10/1200: 14.2S 143.5E: 070 (130): 050 (095): 990
+36: 11/0000: 13.9S 141.6E: 085 (155): 035 (065): 999
+48: 11/1200: 13.9S 139.9E: 100 (180): 040 (075): 996
+60: 12/0000: 13.9S 137.8E: 100 (185): 050 (095): 990
+72: 12/1200: 14.2S 136.0E: 105 (195): 065 (120): 979
+96: 13/1200: 14.9S 133.4E: 135 (250): 035 (065): 998
+120: 14/1200: 15.4S 132.8E: 175 (320): 030 (055): 999
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Tiffany continues to develop and has now reached category 2
intensity.
Position was analysed using animated enhanced infra-red and microwave satellite
imagery. Convection continues to develop and wrap around the centre with very
tight banding. Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern with 0.8 to
0.85 wrap giving DT 3.5. MET is 2.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, and PAT is
adjusted up to 3.0. Final T 3.5, and CI is set to 3.5. This is supported by a
recent SMOS satellite pass indicating a small area of 50 knot winds near the
centre of the system. Intensity is set to 50 knots (10 minute mean).
The CIMSS analysed deep layer wind shear has decreased slightly to 15 to 20
knots as the upper level ridge is deformed to the north by an upper trough
passing to the south. This same feature has improved upper poleward outflow
from the system. SST is above 29 degrees Celsius. Given the small size of
Tiffany, intensification could continue, however the circulation will start to
feel the effects of the coastline within the next 6 to 12 hours and thus the
current intensity is forecast to persist through to landfall.
Tiffany will continue to be steered westward by a mid-level ridge to the south
for the next several days. Late in the week another upper trough will weaken
the ridge. The system will slow and possibly recurve to the southeast. This is
likely to be after landfall on the Northern Territory coast, however
considerable uncertainty remains with this timing. Otherwise, conditions are
broadly favourable for development as the system tracks across the Gulf of
Carpentaria and the forecast development to a category 3 system in the western
Gulf remains credible.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/1930 UTC.
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