(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.6N 87.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.1N 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION OVER A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 142230Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE
IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED ALONG A BROAD SPIRAL BAND
WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LLC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES 91B IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (26-27C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING
OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 91B WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WITH GFS AND NAVGEM
INDICATING INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN 72 TO 96
HOURS. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT LEVEL OF ORGANIZATIONAL IMPROVEMENT
SUGGESTS THIS MAY OCCUR MORE RAPIDLY THAN MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 94.9E TO 16.7N 94.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 210000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 94.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.7N 94.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 94.9E, APPROXIMATELY
290NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT INVEST 01B CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH MODERATE CONVECTIVE BANDING.
A 210024Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS INCREASINGLY WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES AND ELONGATED FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTH OF THE LLC.
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND 91B REMAINS ENCOURAGING FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH REASONABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (05-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND NOURISHING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
VALUES (29-30C). TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHERLY TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE MYANMAR COAST. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RELATIVELY STEADY
BUT SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
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