霧峰追風者

  熱帶低壓  
編號：TD 01 ( 01 W )
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期        ：2022 年 03 月 29 日 07 時
JMA升格熱低日期：2022 年 03 月 30 日 02 時
CWB編號日期       ：2022 年 03 月 30 日 14 時
撤編日期　　        ：2022 年 04 月 01 日 03 時
登陸地點　　 　   ：越南

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局  (CWB)：12 m/s
日本氣象廳  (JMA) ：15 m/s ( 30 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：25 kts ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓： 1006 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
93W.INVEST.15kts-1008mb-8N-117.4E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

JTWC 評級Low。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
7.6N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 119NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES.  THERE IS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH SOME VISIBLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST
AS SEEN IN THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF VISIBLE IMAGERY.  ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITH BURGEONING RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH GFS
BEING THE BIGGEST PROPONENT FOR THE SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT WITH 93W
REACHING STRONG TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EAST OF THE VIETNAM
COASTLINE, WHILE ECMWF HARDLY RECOGNIZES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND DOESN’T DEVELOP THE SYSTEM. ENSEMBLES HOWEVER HAVE A TIGHT
GROUPING FOR BOTH ECENS AND GEFS, AND BOTH PROPAGATE 93W TO
VIETNAM WITH MOST GEFS AND ECENS MEMBERS RECOGNIZING AT LEAST
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH SYSTEM. OVERALL ASSESSMENT IS
THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND INTENSIFY IN THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 平及提升"Medium"。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.6N 118.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 116.2E, APPROXIMATELY
593NM SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. THE POSITION FOR 93W WAS
RELOCATED BASED ON A 290211Z ASCAT-C IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A
DEVELOPING, ELONGATED CIRCULATION ADJACENT TO A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT
EASTERLIES OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH WEAKER WINDS (5-15
KNOTS) ELSEWHERE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO
THE EASTERN QUADRANT SUGGESTING A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 282236Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC, HOWEVER, FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST
VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30C. GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPING
QUICKLY WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD VIETNAM. ECMWF AND NAVGEM SHOW A SIMILAR FORECAST TRACK BUT
WEAKER DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.  

Heigo

JTWC評級升HIGH，發布TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  
NEAR 10.8N 114.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY  
407NM SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. 93W HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS WITH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING GRADUALLY BURROWING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE, THOUGH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
REMAINS OBSCURED BY MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES PRIME CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN HINDRANCES AT THE MOMENT ARE THE
RELATIVELY SHORT TIME REMAINING OVER WATER AND THE RELATIVELY SLOW
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLC. GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPING QUICKLY WITHIN THE NEXT 18-36 HOURS
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD VIETNAM. ECMWF AND NAVGEM
SHOW A SIMILAR TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS DEVELOPMENT. THE
GFS SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

霧峰追風者

JMA 18Z升格TD。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 11N 113E NW SLOWLY.

霧峰追風者

30日14時 CWB已編號TD01，並開始發報。

熱帶性低氣壓TD01

現況

2022年03月30日14時
中心位置在北緯 12.1 度，東經 110.7 度
過去移動方向 -
過去移動時速 -公里
中心氣壓 1006百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺

預測

預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
西南西 時速 9 公里
預測 03月30日20時
中心位置在北緯 12.0 度，東經 110.2 度
中心氣壓1006百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
西南西 時速 7 公里
預測 03月31日02時
中心位置在北緯 11.9 度，東經 109.8 度
中心氣壓1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 100 公里

預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為
西北西 時速 16 公里
預測 03月31日08時
中心位置在北緯 12.3 度，東經 109.0 度
中心氣壓1006百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺

霧峰追風者

JTWC 升格01首報，也是最後一報FW，即將登陸越南。

WTPN31 PGTW 301500   
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z --- NEAR 12.3N 110.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 110.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z --- 13.0N 108.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 13.6N 107.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 109.7E.
30MAR22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z
IS 7 FEET.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

霧峰追風者

JTWC 稍早23Z以判定登陸，登陸前中心對流微爆發。

TPPN10 PGTW 310009

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE)

B. 30/2350Z

C. 12.89N

D. 109.26E

E. FIVE/GK2A

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   30/2042Z  12.78N  109.57E  SSMS


   DESSINO