(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.7N 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 587 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN.
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290801Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OFFSET TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
OF A BROAD, ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY;
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.8N 129.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 131.4E, APPROXIMATELY 632 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 292156Z SSIMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICTS A CONVECTIVE BANDING
OFFSET TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD, ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
A TUTT CELL LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED TO THE WEST
WHICH IS INTRODUCING AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER INVEST 98W,
FURTHER INCREASING INSTABILITY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
2. REMARKS:AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.2N
131.4E, APPROXIMATELY 530NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN.
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN
INCREASINGLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ILL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF 98W HAS AIDED IN ITS DEVELOPMENT WITH AN
INCREASE TO THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM
TRACKING NORTHWEST AND BECOMING TD STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARDS KADENA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
CONCUR THAT 98W WILL FURTHER DEVELOP ALONG ITS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 23 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
TPPN11 PGTW 300552
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (E OF LUZON)
B. 30/0530Z
C. 19.31N
D. 130.90E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. SHEAR MATRIX YIELDS A DT OF
1.5. ME/PT AGREES. DBO DT.
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