霧峰追風者

基本資料  
編號　　　　：03 L
擾動編號日期：2022 年 07 月 02 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2022 年 07 月 04 日 13 時
96L.INVEST.15kts-982mb-32N-80W

1. Near the Southeastern US:
Satellite and radar images along with surface observations indicate
that a low pressure system has formed just off the coast of
Savannah, Georgia. Surface pressures are high in this region, and
development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it
drifts northeastward along the southeast U.S. coastline during the
next day or so.  Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding
across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas through
tonight and into Saturday.  See products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service forecast
office for more details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

t02436

NHC緊急升格並命名Colin，中心已在南卡羅萊納州陸上。

000
WTNT43 KNHC 020854
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

A small area of low pressure formed along a surface trough just
offshore of Savannah, Georgia, yesterday morning and moved inland
across the Lowcountry of South Carolina by the evening.  Deep
convection formed near the low center as it was moving inland and
has persisted and become better organized over the past 6 to 12
hours.  In addition, surface observations and ASCAT data from
02-03 UTC indicated that an area of sustained 35-kt winds had
developed offshore and near the coast of South Carolina.  As a
result, and rather unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Colin has formed
near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the
northeast of Charleston.

Colin is moving northeastward just inland of the coast with a
motion of 045/7 kt.  A low- to mid-level area of high pressure
is located over the western Atlantic, and Colin is expected to move
northeastward and then east-northeastward around that high during
the next 48 hours.  The bulk of the available track guidance
suggests that Colin's center will move along or just inland of the
coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 36 hours, and the
NHC track forecast is generally a blend of the GFEX and HCCA
consensus aids.

Northwesterly shear of roughly 15-20 kt is expected to continue
affecting Colin during the next 36 hours or so, with that shear
increasing to 30 kt or more by 48 hours.  As a result, strengthening
is not anticipated, and Colin is expected to remain a sheared
tropical storm while it moves across coastal areas of the Carolinas,
with tropical-storm-force winds primarily limited to the southeast
of the center.  Colin is likely to dissipate over the western
Atlantic soon after 48 hours.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning
and will spread northeastward within the warning area along the
North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday.

2.  Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 33.2N  79.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
12H  02/1800Z 33.9N  78.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
24H  03/0600Z 34.8N  77.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
36H  03/1800Z 35.7N  75.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
48H  04/0600Z 36.8N  72.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
60H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

t02436

沿美東沿岸北上，預報即將消散。

939
WTNT43 KNHC 030844
TCDAT3

Remnants Of Colin Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Colin no longer has a discernible center or closed circulation in
satellite imagery or surface observations, and it has therefore
dissipated over eastern North Carolina.  The remnants are
generating a line of convection mainly offshore the North Carolina
coast, where buoy reports and earlier ASCAT data indicate that
maximum winds are now down to 25 kt.

Colin's remnants are moving a little faster toward the northeast
(055/9 kt) and are expected to turn east-northeastward and
accelerate soon, crossing the Outer Banks and emerging over the
Atlantic waters this afternoon.  The remnants are then expected to
merge with a frontal system over the western Atlantic in about 24
hours.

This is the last advisory on Colin.  For additional information,
please see products issued by the local National Weather Service
forecast offices in Morehead City and Wilmington, North Carolina.
Also refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the
North Carolina coast through this evening.

2.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact coastal North
Carolina through this morning.  Most areas will see less than an
inch of additional rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 35.2N  77.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS OF COLIN
12H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg