簽到天數: 2141 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2022-7-29 11:16
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JTWC評級Low，JMA升格TD
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.3N
130.8E, APPROXIMATELY 345NM SSE OF KADENA, AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION. A LARGE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION LIES FAR TO THE
SOUTH, EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES ALONG AN AREA OF A CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL
FLOW AXIS, UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE. A 290050Z PARTIAL ASCAT-
B PASS CAPTURED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC, WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. INVEST 95W IS THE ANCHOR POINT OF A MONSOON GYRE FEATURE
WHICH IS MOVING TO THE NORTH, WITH A BROAD BAND OF ENHANCED WIND FLOW
TO THE SOUTH, EXTENDING UP TO THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMERATURES (SSTS), BUT AT PRESENT
OUTFLOW IS RELATIVELY RESTRICTED TO A WEAK EASTWARD OR POLEWARD FLOW,
WITH SOME PRESSURE COMING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE TO THE
SOUTHWEST IMPINGING ON THE OUTFLOW A BIT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK,
SUGGESTING 95W WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS, MOVING OVER OR VERY NEAR OKINAWA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THEN
MOVING INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. MODELS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN IN REGARDS
TO INTENSITY. FIRSTLY, GFS IS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A DISCRETE
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN EAST CHINA SEA AROUND
TAU 60, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCH LESS
INTENSIFICATION. SECONDLY, ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE BAND OF NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS WHICH
WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD AS 95W MOVES NORTH, ULTIMATELY EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN KOREA ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES BY TAU 72,
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO LOW. 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 20N 131E ALMOST STATIONARY. 
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