霧峰追風者

基本資料  
編號　　　　：90 E
擾動編號日期：2022 年 08 月 11 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2022 年 08 月 17 日 14 時
90E.INVEST.20kts-1011mb-12.0N-102.0W

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico have continued to gradually become more
organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by this weekend while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

霧峰追風者

展望提升至80%

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Recent satellite images indicate that the circulation associated
with a low pressure system located about 400 miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become better defined today.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and only a small increase in the organization of the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity would lead to the
formation of a tropical depression, likely tonight or on Friday.
The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph well
offshore the coast of Mexico, and further development appears
unlikely by Sunday when the system is expected to encounter less
favorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Isaac1022

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霧峰追風者

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 152044
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivette Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022

The burst of deep convection that developed around the time of the
release of the previous advisory appears to have resulted in some
unexpected intensification of the cyclone.  A 1650 UTC ASCAT-B
overpass revealed a fairly sizable area of 30-35 kt winds over the
western portion of the circulation. While some of those winds
may have been rain inflated, there were enough vectors in that
range to assume the system has 30-35 kt winds.  Surface
observations from Clarion island, located outside of the deep
convection, measured a peak sustained wind of 23 kt and a gust to
33 kt, which matched the scatterometer data.  A more recent
ASCAT-C pass revealed slightly lower winds, but ADT, SATCON, and
the Dvorak data T-numbers (using a shear pattern) all supported a
35-kt intensity at around 18Z.  Therefore, the depression is
upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm on this advisory.  

The burst of convection that caused the intensification is already
quickly being shunted westward away from the low-level center due
to 20-25 kt of easterly shear.  Since the system is forecast to
remain over warm water during the next couple of days, additional
bursts of convection are likely to develop and it is nearly
impossible to forecast if they will have enough organization or
persistence to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone.  Given
the shear, the forecast still calls for gradual weakening, but it
delays the system's transition to a post-tropical cyclone a bit.

The depression remains within an area of light steering currents and
the initial motion estimate is 265/2 kt.  The system is only
forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward during the next day
or so, before a more pronounced westward or west-northwestward
motion is expected to begin.  The updated NHC track forecast is in
best agreement with the TVCE consensus model, which is slightly
north of the previous official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 17.7N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  16/0600Z 17.6N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  16/1800Z 17.6N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  17/0600Z 17.8N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  17/1800Z 18.0N 116.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  18/0600Z 18.2N 117.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  18/1800Z 18.5N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

TXPZ22 KNES 160014
TCSENP

A.  10E (NONAME)

B.  15/2330Z

C.  17.8N

D.  114.2W

E.  FIVE/GOES-E

F.  T1.0/1.0

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...A SPIRAL LOOSELY DEFINED LLCC LOCATED <1.25 DEG FROM THE
VERY SMALL COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE MET IS <1.0 AND
THE PT IS 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO THE IMPERSISTENT AND
PULSING CONVECTION.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...BROWN