霧峰追風者

基本資料  
編號　　　　：90 L
擾動編號日期：2022 年 09 月 22 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2022 年 00 月 00 日 00 時
90L.INVEST.25kts-1008mb-15.2N-16.0W

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are
associated with a tropical wave that has emerged over the warm
waters of the far eastern Atlantic.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form by this weekend while the system moves slowly
northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

霧峰追風者

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure, located roughly in between the Cabo
Verde islands to the east and the west coast of Africa, is producing
a large area of showers and thunderstorms. While this activity is
gradually becoming better organized, earlier satellite wind data
indicated the circulation remained fairly broad. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some
development over the next day or so, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by this weekend while the system moves northward at
about 10 mph, parallel to the coast of west Africa.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

霧峰追風者

000
WTNT45 KNHC 232033
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
800 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022

A large burst of convection has been occurring in the northeastern
quadrant of the system today, with other shallow banding features
to the southeast of the center.  Overall, the cyclone looks better
than this morning and resembles a sheared tropical storm, which is
confirmed by the Dvorak pattern-T of 2.5 (35 kt) from SAB.  Thus
the wind speed is set to 35 kt, making this system the 8th tropical
storm of the season.  

Hermine continues moving north-northwestward, now about 10 kt.  
Global model guidance is consistent on the cyclone moving northward
through a large break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge.  
The most significant change is that the storm could hold together a
little longer in a marginal environment, which causes the forecast
track to tug a little to the northeast before a weakening Hermine
would move westward as a shallow system beneath the low-level ridge.
The new forecast is shifted to the north and east, but is not as
far northeast as the GFS or HWRF models.  

The storm has about a day over lukewarm water before all the models
hit the system with strong upper-level southwesterly winds.  There
is a minority solution in the models where the upper-trough cuts
off, somewhat lessening the shear, but for now the NHC forecast
stays closer to the faster dissipation scenario. Either way, Hermine
should dissipate early next week due to very strong shear and dry
air entrainment cutting off any deep convection. The official
intensity forecast is a little higher than the last one, near the
various consensus aids.

Note that 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 6 inches,
are possible over the Canary Islands through this weekend due to a
combination of a mid-latitude trough and moisture from Hermine.  
This rainfall could cause some flash flooding in areas of higher
terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 18.6N  20.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  24/0600Z 19.8N  21.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  24/1800Z 21.6N  21.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  25/0600Z 23.1N  21.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  25/1800Z 24.1N  20.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  26/0600Z 24.5N  21.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  26/1800Z 24.8N  21.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/1800Z 26.5N  25.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake