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02S.Ashley 南半球新風季首命名TC

簽到天數: 601 天

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2022-9-27 10:27 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2022-9-27 18:18 編輯

基本資料  
編號    :02 S
擾動編號日期:2022 09 26 17
撤編日期  :2022 00 00 00
91S.INVEST.15kts-0mb-12.0S-84.0E
20220926.0830.himawari-8.vis.91S.INVEST.15kts.0mb.12S.84E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2022擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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霧峰追風者|2022-9-27 10:30 | 顯示全部樓層
AWIO20 FMEE 261046

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/09/26 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Next warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 001/01 on tropical depression 01/20222023 to be issued at 12UTC

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin depict a Near Equatorial Talweg (NET) pattern east of 65oE and oriented between 3 and 5oS. The convective activity is moderate and is concentrated near the tropical depression 01/20222023 located at the eastern end of the basin, as well as on the equatorial side of the NET.

Tropical depression 01/20222023 :

Position at 09UTC: 12.7S/83.6E

Displacement : Southwest 8kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 min : 30kt

Minimum pressure at the center : 1001hPa

For more information on this system, refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 which will be issued at 12UTC and following.

During the next 5 days, there is no risk of another tropical low pressure system forming over the basin.



NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%


The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.
trajectoire.png
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霧峰追風者|2022-9-27 10:35 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 15Z分析T1.5,18Z升格02S。
TPXS10 PGTW 261451
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 26/1430Z
C. 12.62S
D. 82.45E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   26/1251Z  12.62S  83.02E  SSMS
   SCOTT
20220926.1253.f17.91pct91h91v.91S.INVEST.25kts.1003mb.12.7S.83.1E.090pc.jpg
WTXS31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 82.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 82.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 13.2S 80.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 13.3S 78.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 13.7S 75.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 14.3S 73.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 82.1E.
26SEP22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 697 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.
//
NNNN
sh0223.gif 02S_261800sair.jpg
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霧峰追風者|2022-9-27 15:05 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2022-9-27 15:06 編輯
MFR命名"Ashley"
trajectoire.png 20220927.0640.himawari-8.vis.02S.TWO.40kts.998mb.13.4S.80.8E.100pc.jpg
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