0908morakot

基本資料  
編號　　　　：17 E
擾動編號日期：2022 年 10 月 02 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2022 年 10 月 00 日 00 時
98E.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.14.6N.113.2W


  NHC:30%  

1. South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Shower activity associated with an area of disturbed weather
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has become a little better organized
since yesterday.  Additional slow development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next
several days as it moves slowly northeastward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

t02436

昨日21Z直接編號17E並命名Paine

179
WTPZ42 KNHC 032037
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172022
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has been producing convection for the
better part of the last 18 to 24 hours, though it has been somewhat
sheared off to the west of the low-level circulation.  CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB are 2.0 and 1.5, respectively, and recently the
convection has built slightly closer to the center.  An earlier
AMSR2 microwave pass from 03/0913 UTC showed improved banding
structure compared to yesterday.  A 03/1638 UTC ASCAT-B pass shows a
well-defined closed circulation, with wind vectors that support
maximum sustained winds near 35 kt.  On this basis, the disturbance
is upgraded to Tropical Storm Paine.  The ASCAT data indicates that
Paine is a small cyclone, with tropical storm force winds extending
outward only about 30 n mi from the center.

Paine is located in an environment of moderate vertical wind shear
and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, relatively dry mid-level
air is present over this portion of the Pacific. The dry air should
limit significant strengthening over the first 24 to 36 hours,
while the wind shear remains moderate.  Beyond 36 hours, wind shear
increases further and the mid-level air becomes even drier.  This
should lead to weakening, and by 60 hours, Paine is likely to lose
all of its deep convection and become a remnant low.

The initial motion is 345/5 kt. The cyclone should continue on a
similar heading for the next couple of days.  A mid-level ridge
located to the north of Paine after that time should induce a
gradual turn to the west.  The cyclone will also lose its convection
at around that time, with the shallow remnant low moving westward
with the trade wind flow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 15.9N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  04/0600Z 16.4N 112.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  04/1800Z 17.3N 112.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  05/0600Z 18.1N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  05/1800Z 18.5N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  06/0600Z 18.7N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  06/1800Z 18.8N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown