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1. Eastern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure located over the far southeastern Caribbean
Sea is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
southern Windward Islands, northern South America, and adjacent
waters. While surface observations do suggest broad rotation
and pressures are lower than 24 hours ago, there currently is no
definitive proof that a well-defined circulation exists. While land
interaction with the northern coast of South America may hinder
significant development during the next day or so, environmental
conditions are expected to be generally favorable for development as
the system moves westward, and a tropical depression is likely to
form in the next couple of days by the time the system enters the
south-central Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding,
as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of
the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the
ABC Islands during the next day or two. Interests in those
locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue
to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.