(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.9N
132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 090448Z ATMS 88.2GHZ PASS DEPICT A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A POORLY DEFINED CENTER, WITH
PERSISTENT INTENSE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK DUE TO
STRONG EASTERLY CONVERGENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS DEPICTED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND GREATER INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.9N 132.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.9E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 100133Z ASCAT-C PASS DEPICT IMPROVING
CONSOLIDATION AS INDICATED BY A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND 20-25KT EASTERLY
CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS DEPICTED BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHILIPPINE
SEA AND GREATER INTENSIFICATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.8N 125.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.8E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
ENE OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI), AND MICROWAVE DATA DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) DETACHED FROM THE MAIN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
TO THE NORTHWEST. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY PARTIAL PASS REVEALS AN
ELONGATED LLC. ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
98W TO DEVELOP IN, BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS RAPIDLY CLOSING
DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY BEING FORKED OVER TO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA, NEUTRAL (15-20KTS) VWS, A DIMINISHING UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION, AND WARM 31-30C SSTS.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 98W MEANDERING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON AND
BLOCKED BY THE TERRAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO
AN INVEST ONLY.
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