(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6N
134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 584 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH DISPLACED AND
FRAGMENTED BANDING IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 240052Z ASCAT-B PASS
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH CONVERGENT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW
VWS (5-10KTS), WARM SSTS (29-30C) SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY WEAK EASTERN
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BEFORE
INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.6N 134.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD, MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE CIRCULATION WITH ROBUST CONVECTION
HIDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE CIRCULATION BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY
AS IT MEANDERS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTPN21 PGTW 260200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 135.1E TO 14.8N 126.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 134.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.0N 135.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 935 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A 260011Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS REVEALS A
NICE SIZED WIND FIELD OF 15-20 KNOTS WRAPPING TOWARDS THE LLCC WITH A
PLETHORA OF 25-30 KNOTS WINDS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERN SECTION. 93W STILL
HAS SOME WORK TO DO TO GET DOWN TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED AND VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND INCREASES IN THE 850MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURES. DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS ARE IN
ALIGNMENT THAT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION WILL
CONSOLIDATE MORE INTO A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER, AND RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY AS IT WANDERS TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270200Z.
//
NNNN
提升卡
千斤頂
