開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

94S Low

簽到天數: 2350 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2022-11-13 23:58 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2022-11-20 12:30 編輯

基本資料  
編號    :94 S
擾動編號日期:2022 11 13 13
撤編日期  :2022 00 00 00
94S.INVEST.15kts.0mb.9S.93E

20221113.0445.goes-13.vis.m.94S.INVEST.15kts.0mb.9S.93E.pc.jpg

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2022擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

查看全部評分

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1832 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

周子堯@FB|2022-11-16 20:57 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA,有望成為南半新風季首旋

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.3S 99.7E TO 8.7S 103.2E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 160000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.3S 99.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.4S 99.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3S 99.8E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTHWEST
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
152231Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS ILLUSTRATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 151512Z
ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15-25 KT
WIND BARBS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY WARM
(28-29C) SST, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-MODERATE (15-20KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MULTIPLE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL STEADILY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
sh9423.gif .
94S_gefs_latest.png
20221005.2340.himawari-8.ir.03S.THREE.35kts.1001mb.9.7S.86.6E.100pc.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表