簽到天數: 2141 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2023-1-26 00:12
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#補 JTWC升格08S報、MFR命名報
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. CURRENTLY IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SOLID POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST, THE PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IN THE COMING HOURS IS HIGH. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS 08S
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY, INVEST 90S WILL CLOSE
WITHIN 400NM AND BEGIN TO ORBIT AND EVENTUALLY FULLY MERGE WITH
08S. BY TAU 24, 08S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR
60KTS THOUGH HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IF HIGHLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A COL
REGION AS THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS LONGITUDINALLY. NEAR TAU 36,
08S WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR. BASED ON THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN THE SYSTEM WILL
BE FORCED INLAND AND RIPPED APART UNTIL DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 72.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL HOWEVER, THAT THE STEERING RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN AND REORIENTED SOONER THAN FORECAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR A POLEWARD TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE
WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN IO ALLOWING FOR A LONGER LIFE CYCLE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH ALL MEMBERS
TRACKING INLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL, INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE
TOPOGRAPHICAL IMPACTS RESULTING IN A SPREADING OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ALL MEMBERS
INDICATING A SHARP INTENSIFICATION TREND THROUGH TAU 24, AFTER
WHICH AN EQUALLY SHARP WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM MAKES
LANDFALL, AFTER WHICH STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE JTWC
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS THEREFOR PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH.//
NNNN
WTIO30 FMEE 181238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/5/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHENESO)
2.A POSITION 2023/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 52.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/01/19 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 35 NW: 45
24H: 2023/01/19 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 0
36H: 2023/01/20 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 0
48H: 2023/01/20 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2023/01/21 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2023/01/21 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/22 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
120H: 2023/01/23 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY
IMPROVED WITH A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE THAT HAS BECOME MORE MARKED
WITH DEEPER CONVECTION AND A COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. IT WAS
THEREFORE DECIDED, WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MADAGASCAR, TO
NAME THE TROPICAL STORM CHENESO AT 09UTC. MOREOVER, THE GMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE OF 1005Z CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A WELL VISIBLE EYE IN 37GHZ
AND A CONVECTION WHICH IS ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER IN 87 GHZ.
CONTINUING ITS INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE NAMING, THE CMRS ESTIMATES
THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 45KT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 992HPA.
THE SECONDARY VORTEX, LOCATED AT 12.13S/56.59E ON THE VISIBLE IMAGE,
HAS NOT PENALIZED THE INTENSIFICATION OF CHENESO.
CHENESO IS STILL MOVING QUITE RAPIDLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED IN THE SOUTH. THIS
MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BY SLOWING DOWN
GRADUALLY. FROM TOMORROW, A MID-TROPOSPHERIC BAROMETRIC COLLAR WILL
SET UP SOUTH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE EQUATOR WILL BUILD UP NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MAINTAINED OVER THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE RATHER IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE ZONAL
PORTION OF THE TRACK PROPOSING A LANDING ON THE NORTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR AT THE END OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE DISPERSION INCREASES RAPIDLY BEYOND THAT, WHICH MAKES THE TRACK
PREDICTION AFTER LANDING PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. THREE SCENARIOS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. THE FIRST ONE MAKES THE SYSTEM ENTER OVER MADAGASCAR
AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST AT THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WAS THE
SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE EUROPEAN GROUP AND BY THE CMRS. THE SECOND
SCENARIO IS TO CROSS MADAGASCAR AND EMERGE ON THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
AT THE END OF THE TIMELINE. THIS IS THE SCENARIO CARRIED BY THE
AMERICAN GROUP. FINALLY THE THIRD SCENARIO PROPOSES AN END OF LIFE OF
THE SYSTEM ON MADAGASCAR.
THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE EUROPEAN GROUP SEEMS ON THE LAST RUN TO BE
CLOSE TO THE PROPOSAL OF THE AMERICAN GROUP. THE CHOICE OF CMRS WAS
TO GET CLOSER TO THESE PROPOSALS IN TERMS OF TRACK AND THUS TO REVISE
THE TRACK FURTHER WEST WHILE STAYING ON MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK REMAINS VERY IMPORTANT BEYOND 36H AND THE
OTHER SCENARIOS ARE NOT COMPLETELY DISCARDED.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE INTENSIFICATION OF CHENESO SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL LANDING WITH A GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THEN WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE
MADAGASCAR RELIEF, THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN ON THURSDAY. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION, POSSIBLY REACHING THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM JUST BEFORE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR.
IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL THEN LAST AT LEAST
UNTIL SUNDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO THE WHOLE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISLAND
(NORTH OF A TAMATAVE - MAJUNGA AXIS) IN CONNECTION WITH THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OVER
4 DAYS EXCEEDED 250 MM OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY
MORE THAN 500 MM OVER THE NORTHERN RELIEF.
- STRONG WIND CONDITIONS (GALE) ARE EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT WEDNESDAY
BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND IN THE SOUTH AND SAMBAVA IN THE NORTH.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND CONDITIONS (STORM) ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDING
ZONE.
- A DANGEROUS SEA STATE WITH AVERAGE WAVES OF MORE THAN 4M WILL ALSO
AFFECT THE NORTH-EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR NORTH OF CAP MASOALA FROM
TONIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THEN OFF SAINTE MARIE ISLAND TOMORROW. A RISK
OF COASTAL SUBMERSION IS LOCALLY POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMPACT AREA.= 
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