(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.5N 137.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION
BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 040758Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS FURTHER REVEALS AN IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 041144Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B
PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED BUT IMPROVING CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF
15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 98W IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, DEFINED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 30C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL HAVE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT MEANDERS
POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
提升卡
千斤頂
