(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.3N 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 471 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 230911Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A BROAD AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 231136Z ASCAT-B PASS A LARGE AND RELATIVELY WEAK CIRCULATION, WITH SOME ENHANCED WINDS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN FLANK BENEATH THE CONVECTION BUT OTHERWISE SHOWS WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE OTHER QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH WARM (30C) SSTS, AND LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW EMANATING FROM THE OUTFLOW FROM TY 05W TO THE NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP SPEED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 48, WHILE ENSEMBLES ARE PREDICTING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG A SIMILAR TIMELINE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE THROUGH TAU 48, BEFORE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.0N 141.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 141.6E, APPROXIMATELY 207 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250846Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLC FROM THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 251226Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS
REVEALS A MORE DEFINED BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES AND FEW 25-30 KNOT WINDS OFF
SET TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 91W REMAINS IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW FROM TY 05W
PLACING THE SYSTEM UNDER MODERATE (20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT
TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.7N 141.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 141.7E, APPROXIMATELY 211 NM EAST
OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD TURNING
AND A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTION AND
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
THE FORMATIVE BANDING IS FURTHER EVIDENT IN A 252135Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP REVEAL A DEEPENING PRESSURE
CENTER WITH A 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALL OF 0.6 MB. INVEST 91W REMAINS IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO NORTHERLY OUTFLOW FROM TY
05W PLACING THE SYSTEM UNDER MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL STEADILY
CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
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