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霧峰追風者|2023-9-11 10:24
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(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.1N
129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 206 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA,
JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102228Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK, RAGGED, AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED, SHALLOW FLARING CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MINIMAL POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-
29C) SSTS. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIRECTLY OVER
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND SUPPRESS CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THAT 92W WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OR BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN
PLACE OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
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