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96W Low

簽到天數: 3948 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2023-11-11 17:52 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2023-11-12 20:49 編輯

基本資料  
編號               :96 W
擾動編號日期 :2023 11 11 08
撤編日期        :2023 00 00 00

96W INVEST 231111 0000 4.1N 167.5E WPAC 15 0
20231111.0920.himawari-9.ir.96W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.4.6N.166.4E.100pc.jpg
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簽到天數: 2137 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

周子堯@FB|2023-11-12 20:52 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low,系集有所反應

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.6N 166.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 169.8E, APPROXIMATELY 407 NM EAST
OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120510Z
HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH FORMATIVE
SHALLOW BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31C), AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS). GLOBAL
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE
TO CONSOLIDATE AND FURTHER DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


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簽到天數: 2137 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

周子堯@FB|2023-11-12 20:52 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low,系集有所反應

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.6N 166.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 169.8E, APPROXIMATELY 407 NM EAST
OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120510Z
HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH FORMATIVE
SHALLOW BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31C), AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS). GLOBAL
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE
TO CONSOLIDATE AND FURTHER DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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