Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or so. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Central East Pacific (EP90):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of
low pressure. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected
to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Central East Pacific (EP90):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well west-southwest
of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area
of low pressure. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
1. Central East Pacific (EP90):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well west-southwest
of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area
of low pressure. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or two while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. For additional information,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
WTPN21 PHNC 022030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 109.4W TO 13.7N 116.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 109.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.9N 109.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 109.8W, APPROXIMATELY 504 NM
SOUTH OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICT CONVECTIVE CLOUD
LINES WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. 90E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE
NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION WHILE GFS DETERMINISTIC IS
CURRENTLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032030Z.
//
NNNN
667
WTPZ53 KNHC 040851
TDSEP3
Depresión Tropical Eight-E Discusión Número 1
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL EP082025
1100 PM HST domingo 03 de agosto de 2025
Aguaceros y tormentas eléctricas asociadas con un área de baja presión
bien al suroeste de la Península de Baja California se han vuelto
mejor organizados durante las últimas 12 horas. Además, un paso ASCAT
durante la noche mostró una circulación bien definida con vientos
máximos cerca de 30 kt. Dada la organización convectiva mejorada y la
circulación bien definida, se están iniciando advertencias sobre la
Depresión Tropical Ocho-E. La intensidad inicial se establece en 30
kt, basado en una mezcla del paso ASCAT y las estimaciones de
intensidad de la corriente de Dvorak de TAFB y SAB.
El movimiento inicial se estima en 300/13 kt, a lo largo del lado sur
de una fuerte cresta subtropical. Se pronostica que esta cresta
permanecerá en su lugar hasta el período de 5 días, dirigiendo el
sistema generalmente hacia el oeste-noroeste durante todo el
pronóstico. Un movimiento ligeramente más hacia el oeste es posible
para el día 4 a medida que el ciclón se vuelve más poco profundo y se
dirige dentro del flujo de nivel bajo a medio. El pronóstico de la
trayectoria actualizado está cerca de las ayudas de consenso.
Se pronostica que el sistema se fortalezca constantemente durante los
próximos dos días a medida que se mueve sobre aguas cálidas y a través
de un ambiente húmedo y de baja cizalladura. Se espera que se
convierta en una tormenta tropical el lunes y podría acercarse a la
fuerza de huracán entre 36 y 60 horas. Después de ese tiempo, se
anticipa una tendencia de debilitamiento gradual a medida que el
ciclón se mueve sobre temperaturas de la superficie del mar por debajo
de 26 grados C y comienza a arrastrar aire de nivel medio más seco
dentro de un ambiente más estable. Imágenes de satélite simuladas de
los modelos globales apoyan este escenario, mostrando una reducción en
la convección profunda a medida que el sistema continúa hacia el
oeste-noroeste en la cuenca del Pacífico central. El pronóstico está
ligeramente por encima de la guía de intensidad hasta 60 horas, luego
está en buen acuerdo con las ayudas de consenso a partir de entonces.
提升卡
千斤頂
照妖鏡
