king111807

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：93 S
擾動編號日期：2025 年 09 月 08 日 18 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 09 月 00 日 00 時
93S.INVEST.15kts-1009mb-4.1S-96.9E

king111807

JTWC評級Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.2S
95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS CYCLING
CONVECTION FROM THE NORTH EAST WITHIN THE WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 091435Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 20-25
KNOT WINDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE
AREA INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS), OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-29 C) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 93S CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTH WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION MORE ON GFS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT AS WELL THAT 93S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTH, WITH ECMWF SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.2S 95.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8S 94.4E, APPROXIMATELY 464 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND DEVELOPING PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS), OFFSET BY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 93S
CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTH WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH, WITH ECMWF SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A HIGHER
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 100800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.0S 94.2E TO 9.4S 92.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
100600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.3S
94.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.8S 94.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.3S 94.1E, APPROXIMATELY 501 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH 93S TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH ECMWF SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110800Z.
//
NNNN