king111807

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：95 E
擾動編號日期：2025 年 09 月 09 日 18 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 09 月 00 日 00 時
95E.INVEST.20kts-1009mb-11.7N-93.7W

NHC : 40%

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located south of the southern coast of Guatemala is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions are favorable for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this
week as it moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but
offshore of the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至50%

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP95):
A tropical wave located a couple hundred miles offshore of the coast
of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are favorable for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this week as it moves west-northwestward, roughly
parallel to but offshore of the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至High，70%

South of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Recent satellite surface wind data indicate that an area of low
pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles south of Puerto
Angel, Mexico.  The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has
become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in a day or so.  The system is forecast to move
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 102030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 96.4W TO 16.2N 102.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 96.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
96.6W, APPROXIMATELY 198NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT0 LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION, WITH BROAD BUT FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES. A PARTIAL
101518Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS 20-25 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO WARP NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE LLC. IN THE WEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THERE IS AN
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS APPROXIMATELY 150NM FROM THE
CETNER. ENVROMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD
EQAUTORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
112030Z.//
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