AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.2N
70.7E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTREMELY BROAD AREA OF
TURNING CHARACTERIZED BY FLARING CONVECTION AND NO DEFINED LLCC WITH
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH BEING SHEARED OFF. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH (20KT-30KT) VWS AND RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY
WARM SST (27C-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
CONFIDENT IN A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS THE INVEST TRANSITIONS OVER OPEN OCEAN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.7N 68.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 68.6E, APPROXIMATELY 189 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 010430Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOTS WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28
C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON CONTINUED STEADY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT GENERALLY ARE ON DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
OF INVEST 90A. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERY SLOW TRACK SPEEDS
AND POSSIBLE ERRATIC MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS DUE TO THE
PLACEMENT BETWEEN RIDGING TO BOTH THE EAST AND WEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
National Bulletin No. 2 (ARB/02/2025 and BoB/07/2025)
TIME OF ISSUE: 2110 HOURS IST DATED: 01.10.2025
Subject: (A) Depression over Westcentral Bay of Bengal and (B) Depression over northeast Arabian Sea
(B) Depression over northeast Arabian Sea
The Well Marked Low Pressure Area over northeast Arabian Sea & adjoining Saurashtra coast moved nearly westwards, concentrated into a depression and lay centered at 1730 hours IST of today, the 01st October, 2025 over northeast Arabian Sea near latitude 22.00N and longitude 68.30E, about 90 km west-southwest of Dwarka, 150 km south-southwest of Naliya, 150 km west-northwest of Porbandar and 340 km south-southeast of Karachi.
It is likely to move slowly west-southwestwards towards northwest Arabian Sea during next 3 days.
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