AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.0N
140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 241 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK AREA OF TURNING WITH
DISLODGED CELLS OF FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THIS
POORLY DEFINED AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5KT-10KT) VWS, WARM (28C-30C) SSTS AND GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONFIDENT
THIS BROAD AREA OF DISPLACED CONVECTION WILL CONSOLIDATE AND CONTINUE TO
TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.0N 140.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 476 NM
WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 292336Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED BUT
MORE DEFINED CIRCULATION, WITH A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT. A 292115Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LLC, WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND FRAGMENTED BANDING NEAR THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5KT-
10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28C-30C) SSTS AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTPN21 PGTW 010130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 132.5E TO 16.3N 125.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 132.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.1N 135.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 633 NM
EAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 302214Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KNOTS, WARM (28C-
30C) SSTS AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020130Z.//
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