king111807

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：91 B
擾動編號日期：2025 年 09 月 30 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 10 月 00 日 00 時
91B.INVEST.20kts-1001mb-15.5N-87.0E

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.6N
89.6E, APPROXIMATELY 298 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WITH
AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE MSI ALSO REVEALS BROAD
CONVECTIVE BANDING WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH
STRONG EASTERLIES ALOFT. A 090930Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG WINDS (20-
25 KTS) TO THE WEST OF THE BROAD CONVECTION CENTER. ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT WHILE ECMWF SHOWS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC直接發布TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0N 87.0E TO 20.0N 84.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.8N 86.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.6N 89.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 301546Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES A SWATH OF 35 KNOT
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
5-10 KNOTS, EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE SYSTEM HAVING A
GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011800Z.//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC升格TS，編號01B

WTIO31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PERAL HARBOR HI/301752ZSEP2025/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 86.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 86.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 17.2N 86.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 18.5N 85.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 19.8N 84.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 21.1N 84.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 86.4E.
01OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010600Z
IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
2.THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 301800).//
NNNN

king111807

IMD編號BoB 07

National Bulletin No. 1 (ARB/02/2025 and BoB/07/2025)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1650 HOURS IST DATED: 01.10.2025

Subject: (A) Depression over Westcentral Bay of Bengal and (B) Well-marked low-pressure area over northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Saurashtra coast
(A) Depression over Westcentral Bay of Bengal
The Well Marked Low Pressure Area over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved north-northwestwards, concentrated into a depression and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 01st October 2025 over westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 15.80N and longitude 86.50E, about 400 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 420 km south-southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha), 450 km south of Puri (Odisha) and 500 km south of Paradip (Odisha).
It is very likely to continue to move north-northwestwards, intensify further into a deep depression and cross Odisha and adjoining Andhra Pradesh coasts between Gopalpur and Paradip during early morning of 3rd October.