AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N
147.0E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 030400Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LOCALIZED BURSTS OF
CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KTS,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
ON THE STEADY CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
WELL AS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. GFS AND NAVGEM ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPMENT THAN ECMWF AND THE ENSEMBLES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
提升卡
千斤頂
照妖鏡
