king111807

  氣旋風暴     熱帶低壓  
編號：BOB 08 --> TD31 ( 04 B --> 34 W)
名稱：Senyar

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期       ：2025 年 11 月 21 日 02 時
JTWC升格日期     : 2025 年 11 月 25 日 20 時
IMD命名日期　　：2025 年 11 月 26 日 08 時
JMA升格熱低日期：2025 年 11 月 27 日 20 時
CWA編號日期       ：2025 年 11 月 28 日 08 時
停編日期　　        ：2025 年 12 月 01 日 20 時
登陸地點　　        ：印尼 蘇門答臘

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 (IMD)：40 kt
日本氣象廳  (JMA) ：15 m/s ( 30 kt )
中央氣象署  (CWA)：15 m/s ( 7 級 )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：45 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   ：996 百帕

  其他紀錄  
一、史上首個麻六甲海峽形成熱帶風暴。

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
95B.INVEST.15kts-0mb-5.3N-98.9E

以上資料來自：IMD、JMA、CWA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4N
98.3E, APPROXIMATELY 418 NM NORTHWEST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS GETTING SHEARED TO THE WEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS SYSTEM IS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING AN EARLIER
TIMELINE OF DEVELOPMENT THAN ECMWF. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, WITH INTENSIFICATION AFTERWARDS, AS THE CIRCULATION TRANSITS
WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.9N 100.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 99.9E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PHUKET, THAILAND.. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE
ASSESSED CENTER OF 95B. A RECENT 250208Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS REVEALS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE STRAITS OF MALACCA, WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING MOST OF THE
CIRCULATION, A SIGNIFICANT AND DRAMATIC STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT OVER
THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KNOTS, DUEL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, TRACKING 95B ACROSS A WIDE-RANGE OF POTENTIAL TRACKS.
ECEPS AND ECMWF TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD OVER NORTHERN SUMATRA,
HINDERING DEVELOPING, WHILE GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST BUT KEEPS
IT OVER WATER, RESULTING IN MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION, WHILE
NAVGEM FORECASTS 95B TO TAKE A SOUTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF THE
MALAY PENINSULA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23
TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95B)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250551Z NOV 25//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 250600)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.7N 99.4E TO 5.6N 97.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
250600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.7N
99.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR, 4.5N 99.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 99.3E, APPROXIMATELY 200NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 250230Z ASCAT-B PASS
REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF INVEST 95B. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95B WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE STEADY DEVELOPMENT
WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260600Z.//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC升格04B

WTIO31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z --- NEAR 4.7N 99.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 4.7N 99.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 5.0N 97.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 4.7N 96.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 4.4N 96.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 4.5N 97.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 4.8N 98.6E.
25NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 872
NM SOUTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
251200Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN

king111807

IMD編號BOB 08

National Bulletin No. 1 (BOB/08/2025)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1300 HOURS IST DATED: 25.11.2025

(A) Depression over Strait of Malacca
Yesterday’s well marked low pressure area over Malaysia and adjoining Strait of Malacca moved west-northwestwards, intensified into a depression and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 25th November, 2025 over Strait of Malacca, near latitude 5.4°N and longitude 99.7°E, about 70 km west of George Town (Malaysia), 290 km east of Kuta Makmur (Indonesia), 740 km east-southeast of Nancowry (Nicobar Islands) and 870 km east-southeast of Car Nicobar (Nicobar Islands).
It is very likely to move slowly west-northwestwards and intensify further during next 48 hours.

king111807

IMD升格深低壓(DD)

National Bulletin No. 4 (BOB/08/2025)
TIME OF ISSUE: 0135 HOURS IST DATED: 26.11.2025

(A) Deep Depression over Strait of Malacca
The depression over Strait of Malacca moved nearly westwards in past 6 hours with a speed of 10 kmph, intensified into a deep depression and lay centered at 2330 hours IST of yesterday, the 25th November, 2025 over the same region near latitude 5.1°N and longitude 98.5°E, about 160 km east of Kuta Makmur (Indonesia), 200 km west-southwest of George Town (Malaysia), 640 km east-southeast of Nancowry (Nicobar Islands) and 770 km southeast of Car Nicobar (Nicobar Islands).
It is very likely to continue to move west-northwestwards and intensify further into a cyclonic storm by 26th forenoon.
Forecast track and intensity are given in Table below

king111807

IMD升格氣旋風暴，命名Senyar，成為史上首個在麻六甲海峽形成的TS

National Bulletin No. 5 (BOB/08/2025)
TIME OF ISSUE: 0930 HOURS IST DATED: 26.11.2025

(A) Cyclonic Storm "Senyar" [Pronunciation: 'Sen-yar'] over Strait of Malacca
The deep depression over Strait of Malacca moved nearly westwards in past 6 hours with a speed of 10 kmph, intensified into a cyclonic storm "Senyar" [Pronunciation: 'Sen-yar'] and lay centered at 0530 hours IST of today, the 26th November, 2025 over Strait of Malacca and adjoining Northeast Indonesia near latitude 5.0°N and longitude 98.0°E, about 100 km east of Kuta Makmur (Indonesia), 260 km west-southwest of George Town (Malaysia), 600 km east-southeast of Nancowry (Nicobar Islands) and 740 km southeast of Car Nicobar (Nicobar Islands).
It is very likely to maintain the intensity of cyclonic storm for next 24 hours and then weaken gradually. It is likely to move nearly westwards and cross Indonesia coast around Lat 5.0°N during forenoon of today, the 26th November. Thereafter, it will move west-southwestwards initially then recurve eastwards during subsequent 48 hours.
Forecast track and intensity are given in Table below