alu

  氣旋風暴  
編號：BOB 09  ( 05 B )
名稱：Ditwah

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日 20 時
JTWC升格日期:2025 年 11 月 27 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2025 年 11 月 27 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：斯里蘭卡

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 (IMD)：35 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：35 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   ：1002 百帕

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
96B INVEST 251124 1200 6.5N 79.0E IO 15 1008


以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.5N
79.4E, APPROXIMATELY 89 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED AT THE WESTERN END OF A TROUGH
WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARDS TO ANOTHER AREA OF ROTATION EAST OF SRI
LANKA. A 242228Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW
FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT LLCC, WHILE A
241812Z OSCAT-3 SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS SURROUNDING THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
PORTRAYING 96B TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER OR
JUST SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA, THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.0N 79.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 82.9E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA.. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 251948Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT
A PARTIALLY OBSCURED, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-
15 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT PORTRAYING 96B TO CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF SRI
LANKA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.1N 81.7E TO 9.1N 81.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.2N
81.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.3N 81.5E. IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 81.4E 100 NM EAST SOUTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
AND A 261611Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS DEPICT ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS APPEARING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROKEN CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING
AGAINST THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) AROUND THE COASTLINE OF SRI LANKA, GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PRESENT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DEPICTING 96B TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK OVER
SRI LANKA AND TOWARDS THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272100Z.//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC升格05B

WTIO32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262051ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z --- NEAR 6.6N 81.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 81.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 7.4N 81.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 8.1N 80.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 8.8N 80.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 9.6N 80.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 11.6N 80.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 13.3N 80.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 14.0N 80.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 6.8N 81.2E.
27NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1046
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR) FINAL WARNING (WTIO31 PGTW).
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 262100).//
NNNN

king111807

IMD升格氣旋風暴，命名Ditwah

(A) Cyclonic Storm Ditwah [Pronunciation: Ditwah] over coastal Sri Lanka & adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal
The Cyclonic Storm Ditwah [Pronunciation: Ditwah] over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka coast moved north-northwestwards with the speed of 10 kmph during past 6 hours and lay centered at 0900 UTC of today, the 27th November 2025 over coastal Sri Lanka and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 7.2°N and longitude 81.8°E, about 60 km south-southeast of Batticaloa (43475), 140 km north-northeast of Hambantota (43436), 170 km south-southeast of Trincomalee (43418), 570 km south-southeast of Puducherry (43331) and 670 km south-southeast of Chennai (43279).
It is very likely to continue to move north-northwestwards across Sri Lanka coast & adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal and reach over southwest Bay of Bengal near North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coasts by 2100 UTC of 29th November.

king111807

JTWC發布FW

WTIO32 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH) WARNING NR 012   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291800Z --- NEAR 10.5N 80.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 80.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 11.4N 80.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 12.4N 80.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 80.8E.
29NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (DITWAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 847
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B AS A SHALLOW, RAGGED, AND FULLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 291510Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL
PATCH OF 30 KT WINDBARBS WITHIN THE PALK STRAIT, BUT CONFIRMS THE
MAJORITY OF THE WIND FIELD IS 25 KTS OR LESS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
20-25 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 05B WILL TRACK DUE NORTH AFTER DISSIPATION,
REMAINING OFF THE COAST OF INDIA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, HOWEVER, COAMPS-TC (GFS AND
NAVGEM) INDICATES THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT 05B BRIEFLY
REINTENSIFYING TO 35 KTS AROUND TAU 36. BASED ON THE POOR
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, JTWC DETERMINES THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291800Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN

蜜露

東南亞、南亞國家最近洪水不平靜

迪特瓦、森亞爾、天琴　3個氣旋周圍共舞

迪特瓦在斯里蘭卡也造成洪水

根據國外Wiki

斯里蘭卡 335人死亡   370人失蹤
印度 3人死亡  不明失蹤