king111807

  四級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：08 U ( 10 S )
名稱：Hayley

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2025 年 12 月 25 日 02 時
JTWC升格日期:2025 年 12 月 28 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2025 年 12 月 29 日 04 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 01 月 02 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：澳洲

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)：90 kts
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：90 kts ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓   ：952 百帕

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
96S.INVEST.15kts-1003mb-13.9S-116.5E


以上資料來自：BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

BoM編號08U

Tropical Low 08U
A tropical low (08U) may form off the Kimberley coast Friday or over the weekend.
A tropical low (08U) may form within the monsoon trough located off the northwest Kimberley coast on Friday or over the weekend.
The system may move south or southeast next week, potentially towards the Kimberley or east Pilbara coast.
Environmental conditions generally don't favour the development of 08U, and it is more likely to remain weak. However, there is a Moderate (25%) risk the system may develop into a tropical cyclone early next week if conditions are favourable, but may start to weaken mid week the further south it moves.
Residents near the Kimberley coast and east Pilbara coasts should monitor forecast updates over the coming days.
Last updated
6 hours ago, 07:40 pm AEDT

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.2S
118.6E, APPROXIMATELY 223 NM NORTH OF ROWLEY SHOALS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WITHIN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY AND MINOR FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15
KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW 96S CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE WITH A HIGHLY COMPACT WIND FIELD.
GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, SHOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 96S TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.2S 118.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 120.0E, APPROXIMATELY 384 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
A STEADILY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED
FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW 96S CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, WITH ECENS SHOWING A MORE INTENSE
SYSTEM. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH GFS BEING
THE ONLY DETERMINISTIC MODEL SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 280100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S) //
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S 120.0E TO 15.4S 120.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 120.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.0S 120E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 120.0E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 272224Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30
C). GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 96S
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290100Z.//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC升格10S

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280051ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z --- NEAR 13.1S 119.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 119.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 14.0S 119.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 14.9S 119.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 15.7S 120.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 16.3S 121.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 16.7S 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 16.6S 126.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 119.5E.
28DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280600Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 280100).//
NNNN

king111807

BoM升格澳式C1，命名Hayley

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 2:53 am WST on Monday 29 December 2025

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Hayley is forecast to approach the west Kimberley coast during
Tuesday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: Broome to Cockatoo Island, including Derby.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Hayley 08U at 2:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 14.0 degrees South 119.4 degrees East,
estimated to be 535 kilometres northwest of Broome and 590 kilometres northwest
of Derby.
Movement: south at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley 08U has developed well northwest of the Kimberley coast
and is strengthening as it moves south.

Hayley is forecast to track southwards and then turn to the southeast late
Monday, towards the western Kimberley coast. It is forecast to turn more
easterly during Tuesday and on Wednesday.

From later Tuesday, atmospheric conditions become unfavourable for the system
to develop further, and 08U may begin to weaken as it approaches and crosses
the western Kimberley coast Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop over the Dampier
Peninsula Tuesday afternoon, extending east to Cockatoo Island overnight
Tuesday. Gales may develop over the watch area as early as Tuesday morning if
the system moves faster than forecast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 km/h are possible about the coastal fringe north
of Broome to Cape Leveque late Tuesday, if the system moves faster than
forecast.

Widespread moderate to locally HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING
is possible for the watch area from Tuesday.

Tides will be higher than normal as 08U approaches the west Kimberley Coast.

Recommended Action:
DFES Advises: Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES
community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the
Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Monday 29 December.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

king111807

BoM升格澳式C2

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 11:52 am WST on Monday 29 December 2025

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Hayley to impact the Dampier Peninsula on the west Kimberley coast during Tuesday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
north of Broome to Cape Leveque.

Watch Zone
Broome to Kuri Bay, including Derby.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Hayley 08U at 11:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.0 degrees South 119.4 degrees East, estimated to be 445 kilometres northwest of Broome and 410 kilometres west northwest of Cape Leveque.

Movement: south at 11 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Hayley, northwest of the Kimberley coast, is now category 2 intensity and strengthening as it moves south.

Hayley is forecast to turn to the southeast later today towards the western Kimberley coast. It is forecast to turn more easterly during Tuesday towards the Dampier Peninsula.

Hayley is forecast to intensify a severe category 3 cyclone early Tuesday but some weakening is then expected and at this stage a category 2 impact is forecast for landfall.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 km/h are possible about the Dampier Peninsula north of Broome to Cape Leveque from late Tuesday afternoon.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop over the Dampier Peninsula north of Broome as early as late Tuesday morning. Gales may extend further east to Cockatoo Island overnight Tuesday and possibly further east to Kuri Bay early Wednesday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible near the track for the area under Warning and Watch from Tuesday.

Tides will be higher than normal as Hayley approaches the west Kimberley Coast.

Recommended Action:
DFES Advises: Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Monday 29 December.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone