king111807

  深低壓  
編號：BOB 01  ( 90 B )
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2026 年 01 月 04 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 01 月 11 日 02 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 (IMD)：30 kts
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：30 kts ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓   ：1005 百帕

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
90B.INVEST.15kts-1009mb-6.0N-87.0E



以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N
89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 060243Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KTS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C) OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS). GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON THE 90B TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW THE
MOST AGGRESSION IN THE FORMATION OF 90B WITH ECENS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. ON THE OTHER HAND, DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 90B
STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.1N 89.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 87.0E, APPROXIMATELY 632 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND AN 070105Z 91 HZ SSMIS PASS DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 90B TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
TOWARD SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 90B. ECENS
STANDS OUT DEPICTING QUICK DEVELOPMENT. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
STILL RELUCTANT IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF 90B WITH ECMWF
SHOWING THE MOST CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

king111807

IMD編號BOB 01

National Bulletin No. 1 (BOB/01/2026)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1230 HOURS IST DATED: 07.01.2026

Subject: Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining East Equatorial Indian Ocean
A depression formed at 0830 hours IST of today, the 7th January, 2026 and lay centred over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining East Equatorial Indian Ocean, near latitude 4.8°N and longitude 88.2°E, about 740 km east-southeast of Pottuvil (Sri Lanka), 790 km east-southeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 880 km east-southeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 1150 km southeast of Karaikal (Tamil Nadu) and 1270 km south-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu).
It is likely to intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards initially towards southwest Bay of Bengal during next 48 hours.

king111807

IMD升格深低壓

National Bulletin No. 5 (BOB/01/2026)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1000 HOURS IST DATED: 08.01.2026

Subject: Deep Depression over southwest & adjoining areas of southeast Bay of Bengal and East Equatorial Indian Ocean
The depression over southwest & adjoining areas of southeast Bay of Bengal and East Equatorial Indian Ocean moved nearly west-northwestwards with a speed of 15 kmph during past 6 hours, intensified into a Deep Depression and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, the 8th January, 2026 over the same region, near latitude 5.4°N and longitude 85.3°E, about 420 km east-southeast of Pottuvil (Sri Lanka), 470 km east-southeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 470 km east-southeast of Hambantota (Sri Lanka), 570 km southeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 860 km southeast of Karaikal (Puducherry) and 1020 km south-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu).
It is very likely to move west-northwestwards across southwest Bay of Bengal during next 36 hours and cross Sri Lanka coast between Hambantota and Kalmunai around evening/night of tomorrow, the 9th January 2026.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.2N 84.7E TO 9.4N 81.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
080600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.4N
84.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 86.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY
279 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, A 080421Z METOP-C
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A PATCH OF 30KT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND
25KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD, WITH A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
HINDRANCE BEING THE MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THAT COULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION BY TILTING THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
AND DISRUPTING DEEP CONVECTION. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ESPECIALLY, PREDICTING QUICKER AND MORE INTENSE
DEVELOPMENT OF 90B. DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN RELUCTANT TO INTENSIFY
THE SYSTEM BEYOND 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091000Z.//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC取消TCFA，降評Low

WTIO21 PGTW 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90B) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080951ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 081000). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4N
84.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 82.8E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION JUST NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. A 090712Z 89GHZ
GMI PASS FURTHER EMPHASIZES THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD, WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE MAIN HINDRANCE BEING THE MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR FROM THE EAST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE PROGRESSIVELY
SHOWN A WEAKER PEAK INTENSITY OVER RECENT RUNS NEVER FULLY REACHING 35
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC撤評

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.0N 82.8E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.