22S.Horacio 快速增強升格強烈熱帶氣旋

alu · 2026-2-14 01:35

強烈熱帶氣旋
編號：11-20252026 ( 22 S )
名稱：Horacio

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2026 年 02 月 13 日 14 時
JTWC升格日期:2026 年 02 月 20 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2026 年 02 月 20 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 02 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速
法國氣象局 (MFR)：100 kts
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：115 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：946 百帕

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料
97S INVEST 260213 0600 7.5S 69.4E SHEM 15 0

以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807 · 2026-2-18 14:14

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0S
74.2E, APPROXIMATELY 271 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY A BROAD REGION OF FLARING CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH AND EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 170358Z ASCAT PASS
REVELS THAT THE LLC REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH BUT IS
BEGINNING TO CONGEAL INTO A SEPARATE CIRCULATION. THE ASCAT REVEALED
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH, AND UP TO
20 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20 TO 25KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF THE STEADY
DEVELOPMENT OF 97S WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DEPICTING RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. ENSEMBLES MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT OF ITS FORMATION,
BOTH GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT 97S HAVING A GENERALLY SOUTH
EASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807 · 2026-2-18 14:18

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.6S 74.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 74.8E, APPROXIMATELY 163 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CENTER. A PARTIAL 171556Z ASCAT-B PASS
REVEALED WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807 · 2026-2-19 12:50

JTWC發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 190100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8S 76.3E TO 16.1S 76.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9S 76.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 76.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 76.3E, APPROXIMATELY 401 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PATCHY WITH LIMITED COVERAGE, PRIMARILY CONFINED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. WHILE
THE VORTEX REMAINS VERTICALLY TILTED DUE TO THIS SHEAR, THE LLCC HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND MORE SYMMETRIC IN RECENT HOURS. AN 182230Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED TIGHTLY COILED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS
AROUND THE LLCC. AN EARLIER 181611Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 25-30 KNOT WIND
BELTS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC, THOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS
REMAINED SOMEWHAT DISTANT (ABOUT 80 NM) FROM THE CENTER, INDICATING
THAT AN ORGANIZED INNER CORE WIND FIELD HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS), MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND A REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE ENCOMPASSING THE LLCC.
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR SHORT-TERM. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD, IT WILL
ENTER A REGION OF LIGHTER VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH
THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC AS A FOUNDATION, THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE
VORTEX TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION
GRADUALLY SYMMETRIZING AROUND THE LLCC. PHYSICAL AND AI-BASED MODELS
ALIKE ARE DEVELOPING A STRONG CONSENSUS FOR SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT.
THE ECMWF AND GFS GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE REACHING WARNING
THRESHOLD IN 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE HIGH-RESOLUTION HWRF AND HAFS-A
MODELS IN 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN IN 12
TO 24 HOURS. THESE MODELS ALSO GENERALLY AGREE ON A SHORT-TERM
SOUTHWARD TRACK, BENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998 MB. THEPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200100Z.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-2-20 12:07

JTWC升格22S，首報強度上看C3

WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200051FEB2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 76.0E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 76.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.2S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.7S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.0S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.3S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.8S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.7S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.1S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 75.9E.
20FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
490 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z AND 210300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 200100).
//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-2-20 12:34

MFR編號第11號

WTIO30 FMEE 200028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/11/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11

2.A POSITION 2026/02/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 75.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 140

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/20 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 360 SW: 270 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/21 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 0

36H: 2026/02/21 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 45

48H: 2026/02/22 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 345 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2026/02/22 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/02/23 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 360 SW: 305 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/24 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 425 SW: 315 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2026/02/25 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 465 SW: 380 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW
FRAGMENTED CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION, WHILE
IT HAS COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTOR DUE
TO CONVERGENCE IN THE MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER, THE CURVATURE OF THE
CURVED BAND HAS NOT REALLY IMPROVED, AND THE LATEST GCOM-W MICROWAVE
DATA FROM 2121UTC STILL SHOW A WEAKLY CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. WITH A DVORAK ANALYSIS THAT REMAINS AT 2.5 AND THE
UNCLEAR NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, SYSTEM 11-20252026
REMAINS AT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE WITH WIND SPEEDS ESTIMATED
AT 30KT.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWARD, GUIDED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AT
MIDDAY ON FRIDAY, CAUSING IT TO TURN SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM, SLIDING
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE, WHICH IS REMAINING IN PLACE,
WILL GRADUALLY TAKE A SOUTHERN DIRECTION FROM MONDAY ONWARDS AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE HIGH LATITUDES. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK REMAINS
MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, LEAVING A SCENARIO OF A TRACK SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO RODRIGUES THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, AN OPTION TAKEN BY THE
RSMC FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST.

AS FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AFFECTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
SHEARING. STARTING ON FRIDAY DURING THE DAY AND OVER THE FOLLOWING
DAYS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE: DECREASED
SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND A GOOD EVACUATION CHANNEL AT
ALTITUDE TOWARD THE POLE. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY: INTO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY MORNING, THEN
POSSIBLY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN STRONGER OVER THE WEEKEND.
DURING THIS LONG INTENSIFICATION, FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THIS STAGE. IN THE LONGER TERM,
AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCES, WHICH REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPERSED IN TERMS OF THE RATE
OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE MEDIUM TERM.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR POPULATED AREAS OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS.

king111807 · 2026-2-20 15:52

MFR升格中度熱帶風暴，命名Horacio

WTIO20 FMEE 200617
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/02/2026
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 20/02/2026 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HORACIO) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 76.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 155 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2026/02/20 AT 18 UTC:
16.1 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2026/02/21 AT 06 UTC:
16.4 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

king111807 · 2026-2-24 02:09

MFR升格強烈熱帶風暴

WTIO30 FMEE 221840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/11/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HORACIO)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 68.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/23 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 30

24H: 2026/02/23 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/02/24 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/02/24 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2026/02/25 06 UTC: 27.4 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/02/25 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/26 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 110

120H: 2026/02/27 18 UTC: 33.1 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SW: 155 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS RESUMED, PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE CENTER. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO 3.5+. WITH
DECREASING NORTHEAST SHEAR, INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY,
EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO DIFFUSIOMETRIC PASS TO CONFIRM THIS. THE
F16 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1510Z CONFIRMS A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT IN THE
STRUCTURE, AND THE OBJECTIVE DMINT ESTIMATE BASED ON THIS IMAGE
ESTIMATES MAXIMUM WINDS OF NEARLY 50 KT. IN LIGHT OF THESE DATA,
HORACIO IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 50 KT.

NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST, HORACIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ITS TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, CURVING ITS MOVEMENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THEREAFTER. IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW MIDDLE AND
LOW TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH COULD TEMPORARILY BLOCK HORACIO'S
EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES, BEFORE SLIDING OVER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE, INDUCING A DIRECTING FLOW OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. DISPERSION WITHIN THE GUIDANCES IS
LOW IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CERTAIN MODELS WITH A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK AND INCREASES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN
MOVEMENT RESUMES IN THE LONG TERM. OUR CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS CLOSE TO THE AVERAGES OF THE IA ENSEMBLES AND THE
IFS ENSEMBLE.

REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME VERY FAVORABLE. A MARKED, EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO BE SMALL IN
SIZE. THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED, AT
THE LATEST DURING THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, HORACIO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE CONTINUOUS AND WILL
LEAVE A FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEM, PROBABLY AT THE STAGE OF A REMNANT LOW
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FAIRLY LIMITED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A SCENARIO OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL GUIDANCES.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

RODRIGUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY :
- GALE FORCE WINDS UNLIKELY
- HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METERS LIKELY MONDAY AT MIDDAY.