簽到天數: 3475 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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king111807|2026-5-10 05:03
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MFR編號第14號，升格副熱帶風暴，命名Juluka
WTIO30 FMEE 271242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/14/20252026
1.A SUBTROPICAL STORM 14 (JULUKA)
2.A POSITION 2026/04/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 34.6 S / 48.1 E
(THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/28 00 UTC: 37.5 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 535 SW: 0 NW: 0
24H: 2026/04/28 12 UTC: 43.3 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 760 SE: 455 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 565 SE: 270 SW: 0 NW: 0
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
A LOW-PRESSURE AREA FORMED ON SUNDAY EVENING OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MADAGASCAR. CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
SINCE SUNDAY EVENING AND, IN PARTICULAR, MORE PERSISTENT SINCE SUNDAY
NIGHT NEAR A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE ASCAT PASS AT 0445Z MEASURED WINDS OF 40 KT NEAR THE CENTER.
FURTHERMORE, THE FORMATION OF A WARM CORE IN A NEARLY BAROCLINIC ZONE
JUSTIFIES CLASSIFYING THIS SYSTEM AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM. THAT IS WHY IT
WAS NAMED JULUKA AT 11 UTC.
HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DETERIORATED
AND DECOUPLED FROM THE LOWER-LEVEL CENTER, INDICATING STRONG DEEP
SHEAR AND A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
ITS TRACK IS GUIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT DRIVES IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY RETURN
TO HIGHER LATITUDES AND MERGES WITH THE BAROCLINIC CIRCULATION.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING, AND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THE DEEP SHEAR, WHICH WAS WEAK
UNDER THE TROUGH, IS BECOMING STRONGER AND DISRUPTING CONVECTION AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS. INTENSITY COULD FALL BELOW 35 KT
TONIGHT, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHERN TRACK AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.
LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).
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