king111807

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：94 S
擾動編號日期：2026 年 05 月 12 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 05 月 17 日 08 時
94S.INVEST.15kts-0mb-9.6S-80.1E

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.0S
81.2E, APPROXIMATELY 547 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL ENHANCED IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION, WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG ITS NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A
121523Z ASCAT (METOP-B) PASS REVEALS A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A
PATCH OF 20 KNOTS WINDS NEAR THE SPIRAL BAND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT SOME SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES A JET MAX TOWARDS
THE SOUTH. THE GFS MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO
NEAR TROPICAL-STORM INTENSITY. MOST MEMBERS OF GEFS AND ECENS KEEP THE
SYSTEM BELOW CRITERIA AND AGREE ON A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC撤評

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.0S 81.2E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.